259
FXUS65 KPUB 272314
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
514 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few high-based thunderstorms possibly this afternoon and
  early evening across southern Colorado, with cloud to ground
  lightning and gusty winds the main threats.

- Near record heat for Friday with critical fire weather
  conditions for portions of the area.

- System will bring the potential for widespread precipitation Saturday
  and Sunday.

- Spotty critical fire weather conditions possible over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Currently...A few high-based thunderstorms have developed across the
southern mts and plains this afternoon as was expected, with NAM
showing around 1000 j/kg of CAPE across eastern Las Animas and Baca
counties. Temps as of 1 PM have climbed into the 60s for the high
valleys, 70s and 80s for the plains. Temps are on track to warm to
near, or exceed, record highs over the next 2 to 3 hrs.

Tonight...Pacific low pressure system remains centered just off the
OR and WA coast this evening, continuing west-southwest flow aloft
across the Four Corners region. Isolated convection across the
southern tier is expected to persist until around 7 this evening
before diminishing across the southeast corner of the state as
models show llvl drying. The main threats from these storms will be
cloud to ground lightning and wind gusts up to around 50 mph.
Overnight low temps are expected to drop into the 30s for the high
valleys, and 40s across the plains.

Tomorrow...The upper low of the Pacific NW coastline actually edges
back west through the day tomorrow, while the pressure gradient
across the Four Corners tightens. West to southwest winds across the
forecast area are forecast to increase by midday, producing two
results - one, another day of near record temps and here are the
current records:

KPUB 84 in 1986
KCOS 80 in 1963
KALS 71 in 2015

Two, continued dry conditions on top of increasing winds should
produce critical fire weather conditions for portions of the eastern
plains as well as the San Luis Valley, and went ahead and upgraded
the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning from noon until 9 PM.
The ending time may be a bit late, but the warning can be cancelled
early if need be.

An upper shortwave will track along the southwest flow aloft into
the Great Basin by midday, then cross into CO by the afternoon. Not
only will this aid in strengthening winds, but will also help kick
off some shower and storm activity along the Continental Divide and
specifically the central mts by late afternoon.

As for temps, and as mentioned earlier, near record levels once
again. Plan on highs in the 60s to around 70F for the high valleys,
and upper 70s to upper 80s for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 203 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

Friday night through Sunday: An upper shortwave will move
across the area Saturday into Sunday. This upper shortwave will
bring a front through early Saturday, cooling down high
temperatures 10-15 degrees. Overall, rainfall will be more
widespread with this system, and an isolated thunder shower
should not be ruled out. The precipitation looks to end Sunday
afternoon/evening as of right now. There will also be some fire
weather concerns for Saturday and Sunday. The fire weather
concerns for Saturday, looks to be very spotty, and will be only
for a brief period in the evening. Then for Sunday, fire
weather concerns will become a little more widespread for the
San Luis Valley and the southern I-25 corridor during the early
afternoon and start to diminish into the evening.


Monday through Wednesday: There will generally be westerly
flow, with waves of energy that will move across Colorado until
late Tuesday into Wednesday. These waves of energy will be
bringing with it a chance of precipitation for the higher
elevations. Temperatures through this period should stay around
normal/slightly above normal across the plains. There will also
be some fire weather concerns for Tuesday and Wednesday. For
Tuesday, fire weather potentially looks to be more widespread
across the plains and diminishes late Tuesday afternoon. Then
Wednesday afternoon, fire weather potential picks back up and
diminishes into the evening. The southern I-25 corridor looks to
be the main spot for fire weather for Wednesday, but looks to
be very spotty.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 510 PM MDT Thu Mar 27 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

Winds will be light and diurnally driven through early afternoon
tomorrow, then winds will get a bit gusty from the west-
southwest tomorrow afternoon at a 3 taf sites.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Friday for COZ222-224-
228>230.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...CLOUSE
AVIATION...HODANISH