713
FXUS65 KPUB 241747
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1147 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flash Flooding and strong to severe thunderstorms possible
  through much of this week from today onwards.

- Daily showers and thunderstorms with cooler temperatures
  through the next few days

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Currently...satellite imagery early this morning shows an upper high
spinning over northern Arizona, with broad northwest flow across
Colorado.  Energy moving through the flow has spread mid and high
level cloud cover across most of southern Colorado this morning.  A
few light rain showers are possible through the next few hours,
mainly across the San Luis Valley, into the Eastern Mountains.
Overall, temperatures are mild, with mainly 60s across the Plains and
50s across the San Luis Valley.

Today and tonight...not much change expected in the upper level
pattern, with the upper high sitting over the Intermountain West and
persistent northwest flow across Colorado.  The current wave of
energy will exit to the southeast this morning, with the next
embedded wave lined up for this afternoon.  Low level moisture is in
place across the region, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to lower 60s
across the Plains, and PWAT values remain in excess of 1 inch.  Low
level flow will become east to southeasterly by this afternoon,
helping to keep moisture in place across the Plains.  SBCAPE values
are forecast to be around 1200 j/kg by this afternoon, and with the
energy moving across the region, will spark another round of showers
and thunderstorms across the area.  Initial development is expected
over the Mountains, and northwesterly flow should help push this
convection east into the Plains by mid to late afternoon.  0-6 km
shear is decent at around 30 kts.  The main threats from
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will be wind gusts near 50
mph and penny size hail.  A few stronger storms from the Palmer
Divide regions, south into the I-25 corridor could become strong to
severe, with wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and 1 inch diameter
hail.  These storms will be efficient precipitation producers, and
flash flooding may be possible under heavier rain cores.  If you
encounter flooding, turn around, don`t drown!  Highs today will
reach into the 70s and 80s across the region.

Overnight, the upper wave will track southeast across the Plains.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue east across the Plains.
Any severe weather risk will diminish this evening, with widespread
heavy rain expected as the precipitation shifts eastward.  The slow
movement of the upper wave will likely keep showers going well into
the overnight hours, coming to an end by Monday morning.  Overnight
lows will remain mild, with 50s and 60s tonight across the region.

Monday...not much change to the upper pattern, with the upper high
over the Intermountain West, and northwesterly flow across Colorado.
A cold front will drop south on the Plains during the morning hours,
with northerly flow turning southeasterly by mid to late morning.
Moisture remains in place, with dewpoints remaining in the mid 50s
to lower 60s, and PWAT values near 1.3 inches.  The next embedded
upper wave will drop south across the region Monday afternoon. There
are a few model differences in timing with this wave, with a
majority of the high-res CAM guidance developing widespread
convection by mid afternoon.  A few model solutions hold off on
convection until late in the afternoon.  This would allow the region
to cook a bit, and enhancing instability.  Most guidance has CAPE
values in excess of 1000 j/kg by the time convection develops.  0-6
km shear remains around 30 kts.  The main thunderstorms threats will
be gusty winds to near 50 mph and penny size hail.  A couple of
stronger storms are possible by late afternoon, as convection moves
off the higher terrain.  Stronger storms could produce wind gusts in
excess of 60 mph and hail to 1 inch in diameter.  Given the
continued moisture set up, cells will remain efficient precipitation
producers, and continued elevated flash flood risk.  Temperatures
will be cooler Monday, with mostly 70s across the lower elevations.
Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 314 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Monday Night and Tuesday..

Chances for showers and thunderstorms linger well into the overnight
hours on Monday night, likely continuing straight into Tuesday
morning over portions of the high country. We remain under northwest
flow aloft on Tuesday, which will keep temperatures around 10
degrees cooler than normal for daytime highs. Much of plains and all
of our mountain valleys look to top out in the 70s on Tuesday, with
cloudy skies and continued chances for showers and thunderstorms.
Flash flooding will continue to be a risk on Tuesday. For now, WPC
has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall painted across the
forecast area. Both EPS and GEFS ensemble members show nearly 200%
of normal for PWAT anomalies on Tuesday, though instability may end
up being less of a factor that day. Either way, areas that see
substantial rain on Sunday and Monday will still see the risk for
flash flooding on Tuesday as well.

Wednesday Onwards..

The upper-level ridge looks to build from Wednesday into the second
half of the week, though the monsoon moisture tap looks to remain
over us through at least the first couple days of this period.
Slightly below normal temperatures and daily chances for continued
showers and thunderstorms looks to persist straight through the
second half of the week. Models also indicate potential shortwave
energy for the Wednesday through Friday timeframe, which could bring
increased flash flood and severe thunderstorm chances as well. Our
pattern does seem to begin to show signs of shifting back towards a
more seasonally typical pattern possibly by late weekend or through
the beginning of the following week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1147 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will be in play for all TAF sites,
KALS, KCOS, and KPUB, this afternoon and evening. The best
chance for storms will be over KCOS where a steady rain has been
put in the TAF with thunderstorms in the vicinity. KPUB is
expected to be PROB30 for the majority of the evening, but the
storms are more isolated over the lower Arkansas River Valley.
KALS is in the same boat as KPUB, but we put in VCSH in the TAF
instead. Showers and thunderstorms cease at around 9z tomorrow
morning. MVFR and IFR conditions will be possible if a storm
develops over the terminals. We`ll also need to keep track of
gusty thunderstorm outflow winds coming from other storms in the
vicinity of the terminals.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...EHR
AVIATION...SKELLY