969
FXUS65 KPUB 101045
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
345 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Friday will be a dry day ahead of a more unsettled weather
  pattern.

- Some snow accumulation will be possible starting Friday night
  for the central mountains, with amounts generally less than 2
  inches. This will expand eastward into Saturday and through
  Sunday over the eastern mountains, Palmer Divide, and Raton
  Mesa area on Saturday.

- Snow showers will still be possible Sunday through Monday
  morning, mainly over the higher terrain, with very minimal
  additional accumulations expected.

- Overall trend in temperatures remain below the seasonal
  average through the mid part of next week, and then begin a
  warming trend towards the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 341 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025

The latest mid-level analysis indicates that a deep 500 mb trough
axis extends from central Mexico northeastward across New Mexico
across the central Plains. West of the area, a ridge extends from
California northeastward into Idaho. Locally, between the two
features, southeastern Colorado is in a dry, northerly flow. Vort
energy with this feature is shifting east of the area. GOES-16
infrared satellite imagery shows clouds sliding east of the area
with the trough with mostly clear skies across the area in its wake.

Today and Tonight...The area will remain in a dry, northerly mid-
level flow throughout much of the day. With a swath of a deep-layer
dry air moving across the area, this will allow for abundant
sunshine across much of the area early in the day. In the late
afternoon/early evening hours, upper level moisture will advect into
the area from the north, allowing for cloud coverage to begin to
increase into the overnight hours. 700 mb moisture begins to
increase with upsloping from a westerly flow regime for the Sawatch
Range tonight and the Mosquito Range by dawn on Saturday. Thus, some
light accumulation will begin with amounts up to 2 inches for the
Sawatch Range in Lake/Chaffee counties and less than an inch for the
Mosquito Range.

For temperatures, highs today are closest to the NBM, ranging from
the upper 30s for the Front Range and SE Plains to the lower 30s in
the San Luis Valley to the teens and 20s for higher terrain.
Tonight, radiational cooling will be in place with light winds, dry
air, and only thin cirrus moving into the area. Thus, lows will
range from the lower 20s along the Front Range to the mid teens in
the SE Plains to near 0 in the San Luis Valley to the single digits
in higher terrain west of the Front Range. /04-Woodrum/

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025

Saturday through Monday...

Models are continuing to resolve the progression of a major
shortwave trough moving in over SE Colorado this weekend. Ahead of
this trough, winds will be increasing out of the southwest during
the day on Saturday ahead of the trough, and this will allow for
temperatures to be relatively warmer for highs due to the
downsloping nature of the winds, and closer to the seasonal average.
Although there will be some stronger wind gusts within the passes
and downstream due to gap flow, RH values will be high enough to
where there will be no concerns for critical fire weather
conditions. Snow over the central mountains during the day will
spread southward over the eastern mountains and along the I-25
Corridor by later in the evening. An associated cold frontal
boundary will be dropping down by later in the afternoon and through
the early evening over the CWA, with winds switching around out of
the north to northeast. Snow will begin to fill in southward as it
does, with upsloping helping to enhance the development of snow
along the I-25 Corridor through the evening hours. Towards the late
evening hours and through into Sunday morning, snow will develop and
be more confined to the southern Sangres and Raton Mesa area.

On Sunday, with northwesterly flow along with weak waves embedded
within the broad and positively tilted longwave trough remaining in
place over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS. With this, the
chance of some light snow, mainly over the eastern mountains, will
likely continue through Monday Morning. An area of PVA moving
down over the region by later in the morning on Monday due to an
upper level disturbance will also keep the possibility of some
light additional accumulations going into the afternoon hours.
Still not expecting much additional snow accumulation with this,
although there will be a reinforcement of colder air from the
north, highs will be colder, and back to being around 10 degrees
below the seasonal average for most locations.

Tuesday through Thursday...

By this period in the forecast, ensembles continue to reflect that
the broad longwave trough downstream will slightly advance eastward,
with ridging occurring over the western states as this occurs. This
will ensure that the colder temperatures will remain in place only
through the mid part of next week until the trough moves further
east, and then a warming trend and drier conditions will exist going
towards the later half of next week.    -Stewey

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 341 AM MST Fri Jan 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across the terminals throughout the TAF
period as a deep layer of dry air moves across the area on Friday.
Winds will be light and variable at Alamosa, north-northwesterly at
5-10 kts at Colorado Springs, and westerly at around 5 kts for
Pueblo. /04-Woodrum/

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WOODRUM
LONG TERM...STEWARD
AVIATION...WOODRUM