194
FXUS65 KPUB 071148
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
548 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer today with isolated afternoon and evening showers and
  thunderstorms across the higher terrain, mainly along the
  southern border.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms return to the
  region on Sunday, continuing through next week, while
  temperatures remain seasonably warm.

- Pattern change to hotter/drier weather possible beginning next
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Currently...Upper disturbance that helped spark so much of the
activity yesterday continues east out of the region, with lighter
northwest flow aloft settling in. Most of the high level cloudiness
has pushed off, with a smattering of low clouds lurking. Temps as of
1 AM have cooled into the 40s to near 50F for the high valleys, and
upper 40s to mid 50s for the plains.

Today and tonight...Some low clouds and patchy fog is cropping up in
obs across the eastern plains early this morning, but all guidance
is indicating that by around 3 AM surface winds will swing around to
a light westerly direction, which should help clear out any low
clouds.

Generally a lighter and drier northwest flow aloft is expected
across the area through the short term, with just a weak upper
shortwave crossing the northern Rockies this aftn and eve. The drier
flow will help push the higher dewpoints further east today, so llvl
moisture will be less of an issue. However, models do show around
1000-1200 j/kg of CAPE accumulating by 6 PM along the southern
border, specifically the Raton Mesa region, with about 40 kts bulk
shear. SPC did pull the Marginal area for severe storms back out of
the forecast area, so just general thunder is expected.  Therefore,
plan on isolated convection firing over the higher terrain this
afternoon, most likely after 1 or 2 PM, then move to the southeast
through 7 or 8 PM, and the area with the greatest probability of
storm development will be along the southern border. Main threats
from any storms that do develop will be small hail, wind gusts up to
40 mph and cloud to ground lightning.

Look for high temps today to warm back up to seasonal normals in the
70s to near 80F for the high valleys, and 80s across the eastern
plains. Overnight low temps tonight are forecast to cool into the
mid 30s to mid 40s for the high valleys, and upper 40s to mid 50s
for the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Cold front drops south through the eastern plains Sunday
morning, with post-frontal easterly upslope winds bringing a
renewed surge of moisture and instability to areas along and
east of the mountains by afternoon. Expect a general upturn in
thunderstorm chances at many locations Sunday afternoon/evening
as a result, with even the higher terrain back toward the
Continental Divide seeing a modest increase in precip chances as
some weak upper energy drifts across the state in the
afternoon. Might be just enough instability (CAPE 500-1000 J/KG
on the plains) and shear (0-6km values around 30 kts) for a
strong storm along/east of I-25 Sunday, best chance for a severe
storm will be over the sern plains where moisture/instability/shear
are the greatest. Similar pattern for Mon with another round of
afternoon/evening thunderstorms most locations, though best
coverage of storms may shift south toward the srn I-25
corridor/srn Sangres, as some drier air works into the region
from the north. Max temps both Sun/Mon will stay near to
slightly below seasonal averages as cooler air slowly spreads
southward across the region.

Flow aloft becomes more wly beginning Tue, with a subtle
downturn in convection Tue/Wed, especially over the eastern
plains as some mid-level drying and subsidence develop behind
weak upper level low drifting across TX/OK. Still enough
moisture for mountain convection both days, while max temps
climb back to near or slightly above seasonal values. SW flow
aloft increases slightly Thu/Fri, with lee trough on the plains
potentially focusing some convection, especially as weak upper
level energy moves across. Mountains may begin to see some
drying starting Fri, as strengthening mid level swly winds bring
in drier air from the swrn U.S.

Models trending drier/warmer next weekend as deep upper low
develops over the Pacific NW, with dry sw flow spreading across
the srn Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 541 AM MDT Sat Jun 7 2025

Quieter day with isolated afternoon and evening mt convection, best
chances along the southern CO border. VFR conditions for much
of the area over the next 24 hrs.

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds
are expected to be diurnally driven and generally less than 12
kts.

KALS: VFR conditions through the forecast period. Isolated
convection in the vicinity from 21z-02z but confidence not high
enough to include in TAF.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOORE/PETERSEN