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FXUS65 KPUB 010938
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
338 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the area this
  afternoon through the evening. Primary hazards will be heavy
  rainfall over the mountains and gusty winds up to 50 mph on
  the plains.

- Increasing fire danger Thursday through the holiday weekend as
  conditions begin to dry out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 336 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Surface analysis indicates that low-level moisture continues to
linger across the southeastern plains, which will be beneficial for
thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. Current
radar shows residual, but diminishing, thunderstorms across Otero
and Crowley counties from a passing outflow boundary along with some
light showers over the La Garita and eastern San Juan mountains.

An upper high is located to the southeast, centered over the OK-TX
border. Due to its position, southwest flow aloft will bring an
influx of subtropical moisture into southern Colorado. However, the
amount of moisture will not be as abundant as it has been over the
past few days and dewpoint values will only be in the upper 40s to
lower 50s. Therefore, thunderstorms will likely not be as intense.
By early to mid afternoon, a short wave trough is forecast to push
across the area, shifting flow aloft to westerly. This forcing
coupled with the moisture will be sufficient to bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms. These are expected to develop by early
afternoon over the San Juan Mountains and San Luis Valley. Heavy
rainfall is expected to be the primary hazard. Flash flooding will
be possible beneath slower-moving or training storms, specifically
for burn scars and other vulnerable areas. By mid to late afternoon,
storms are expected to be along the I-25 corridor and progress
eastward across the plains through the evening. Forecast soundings
suggest high based thunderstorms across the plains with outflow
winds gusting up to 50 mph with the stronger storms. Expect
temperatures across the plains to be in the upper 90s, mid 70s in
the mountain valleys, and 50s-60s for the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Tuesday...An upper shortwave crosses the Rocky Mt region early Tue,
pushing a weak cold front down into eastern CO. This front will
cross the Palmer Divide early, gradually swinging surface winds
around to an easterly direction across the plains as it continues
pushing south. Plan on isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, mainly tied to the
eastern mts and plains. Temps are forecast to be right around
seasonal norms, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the
high valleys, and mid 80s to lower 90s for the plains.

Wednesday...Post-frontal conditions across the plains will mean a
slightly cooler day for the area, while another stronger upper
disturbance pushes into MT and ND through the afternoon and early
evening. This disturbance will tap into available moisture for
another day of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening
convection, mainly along the eastern mts and across the plains.
Another cold front drops in to the area late Wed night, setting the
stage for Thu. As for high temps, expect mid 70s to around 80F for
the high valleys, and 80s to around 90F for the plains.

Thursday...The disturbance to the north pushes across the Dakotas
and into the Great Lakes region on Thu, while brisk and dry
northwest flow settles in across CO. There is some isolated
convection that may fire over the far eastern plains during the
evening due to a reinforcing push of cold air, or a secondary cold
front, but for the most part Thu will be a dry day with high temps
in the 70s to around 80F for the high valleys, and in the 80s for
the plains. The dry northwest flow will also become evident as the
RH levels drop, leading to the potential of spotty critical fire
weather conditions.

Friday through Sunday...Friday will be the coolest day of the
extended period, due to the cold front late Thu evening. A strong
ridge of high pressure sets up over the West Coast, producing
northwest flow aloft across Colorado. Plan on a warming and drying
trend for the region over the weekend, with the waning available
moisture restricting isolated afternoon convection to mainly the
higher terrain. This will also lead to increasing fire danger, as
temperatures climb back up to seasonal normals. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 336 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

KALS: VFR conditions expected through 24 hours. Showers and storms
will move off of the nearby mountains into the vicinity of the
terminal around 18Z, lingering through about 00Z. Gusty outflow
winds and brief periods of precipitation near the terminal will be
possible. Winds will lighten later tonight and become more diurnally
driven.

KCOS and KPUB: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
move in from the west by around 20Z, passing in the vicinity of both
terminals. Gusty outflow winds will be the primary concern today,
with strong storms putting out gusts upwards of 35 knots. If a storm
does manage to pass over a terminal, winds could become erratic with
moderate rainfall briefly limiting visibility. Convective activity
will wane into the evening hours, with winds weakening towards the
end of this forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO