308
FXUS65 KPUB 141113
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
513 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The Flash Flood Risk continues for the eastern San Juan and
  the Upper Rio Grande Valley, where our Flash Flood Watch has
  been extended through midnight tonight.

- Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
  high country today, with isolated showers and storms over the
  plains.

- Locally heavy rain/isolated Flash Flood potential may last
  through Wednesday evening across the eastern San Juan
  mountains, associated with strong to severe thunderstorms.

- More thunderstorms possible for the remainder of the mountains
  and southeast plains Wednesday and Thursday with strong to
  severe storms possible Thursday on the plains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Currently..

Widespread showers have spread across much of south central and
southeastern Colorado early this morning, with radar and MRMS data
showing returns over large portions of both the high country and the
plains. Heaviest precipitation still looks to be falling over the
San Juans, though precip types have switched to snow down to around
10,000ft or so as of 2 AM. Wolf Creek Pass has been reporting snow
since 11:00 PM. Leadville is still reporting rain, though they are
33/32 as of 2 AM, and are likely to switch over soon as well.
Temperatures across the high country are continuing to fall, and
dewpoints are remaining steady in the 30s and 40s. On the plains,
temperatures are in the 40s and low 50s, with dewpoints also in the
30s and 40s. Low clouds are present across the area. Winds are weak
and are mainly southerly.

Today and Tonight..

Our main forecast concern for today will continue to be rain and
flooding concerns over the high country, specifically, over the San
Juan Mountains. This range received over 4 inches of rain over the
weekend, and an additional 1-2 inches of rain and snow from Monday
into Tuesday morning. A lull is expected from around 8 AM through
around 2 PM today, before showers and thunderstorms are likely to
return to the area. Torrential rain will be possible on top of areas
that are already saturated, and waterways that are already running
high. The main difference in flood chances for this afternoon and
this evening from what we`ve seen the past several days is that
thunderstorms are expected. This will mean higher instantaneous rain
rates, which could lead to increased flooding concerns depending on
where storms develop, move, and how waterways are effected. Rocks,
debris, and mud on roadways will continue to be risks, along with
fast moving water through waterfront campgrounds and parks. Life
threatening flooding will continue to be a risk through the rest of
today and into tonight, and our Flash Flood Watch for the San Juans
and the Upper Rio Grande Valley has been extended through midnight
tonight. Accurate estimates for rainfall amounts will begin to be
harder to predict with the introduction of thunderstorm chances, but
1-2 inches of rain on areas that storms move over will certainly be
possible today and tonight.

PWATs look to be at their highest through around 8AM this morning,
which is when the last of the PWATs of 300 to 400% of normal and
strongest warm rain process type of surge pushes through the area.
High res models suggest a lull for a good portion of the forecast
area from around 8 AM through 2 PM, before showers and thunderstorms
return to both the high country and the plains. Models suggest that
the most intense wave of storms will likely push through the
San Juans late this afternoon and into the evening hours. Nearly
1000 J/Kg of CAPE is forecast over the eastern San Juans this
evening, suggesting that a few stronger storms may be possible
out that way, and certainly some heavy rain makers. Hikers and
campers should use extreme caution near waterways in the San
Juans this evening and have multiple ways to receive warnings!

Other than widespread showers and storms for the high country, and
isolated to scattered storms for the plains, expect warmer
temperatures than yesterday and partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Temperatures look to climb into the 60s for mountain valleys and 70s
on our plains. Breezy south winds with gusts to around 30 mph are
likely on the plains, especially for our far eastern plains this
afternoon. Overnight lows will be warmer tonight with most of our
plains only cooling into the 50s and low 60s, and mountain valleys
staying in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Moist southwest flow will continue through Thursday ahead of the
western U.S. upper low which will lift through the Great Basin and
glance by to our north on Thursday.  This will continue to funnel
200% of normal precipitable waters into the eastern San Juan
mountains in upslope flow on Wed.  As a dry slot works in, along
with cooling aloft with the approaching trough, rainfall will become
more convective in nature, with sufficient shear present for strong
to severe thunderstorms across the eastern San Juan mountains again
Wednesday.  Storm motions will be swift to the northeast around 40-
50 mph which could help mitigate the flash flood potential over the
already saturated conditions.  However, the potential for training
storms with high rainfall rates will remain high. It is
possible we will need another round of flash flood watches for
the eastern San Juans, but will hold off on further extensions
until we see how things evolve. Elsewhere, it will be windy and
warm as lee troughing enhances deep southerly winds across the
plains. Will need to monitor the position of a developing dry
line across the plains on Wednesday, though at least for now,
CAPE still looks limited. This will change on Thursday as the
upper trough passes to our north and southerly flow has a chance
to advect 50 dewpoints northward into southeast CO. CAPE could
be running around 1000 J/kg with deep layer shears of 50+ kts.
Damaging winds and hail would be the primary risks east of a
line from La Junta to Kim, though this positioning is still
prone to change. Meanwhile, western areas should start to dry
out on Thursday as flow aloft becomes more westerly.

A cold front will drop through the plains Thursday night with a
crisp cool morning expected on Friday.  Some of the mountain valleys
will drop into the upper teens to lower 20s, and we may see some
patchy frost if winds decrease quickly enough along the higher
terrain of the I-25 corridor.  Temperatures on Friday will cool
around 5 to 10 degrees from the previous day.

The weekend into early next week looks dry and seasonal with
near normal temperatures. Latest model blend shows the best
chance (20-50%) for frost or a light freeze Sunday morning along
the I-25 corridor and adjacent plains but Sat morning could
also be affected on the Palmer Divide. Warmer temperatures
return for Monday as upper ridging transitions back to southwest
flow ahead of the next approaching western U.S trough/low
pressure system. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

For KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected through the forecast
period, with scattered to broken mid and upper-level cloud cover and
mainly southerly to southeasterly winds. There is a low end (30%)
chance for thunderstorms at KPUB this afternoon, mainly between 20Z
and 23Z, when MVFR visibility will be possible during heavier rain.

For KALS..MVFR ceilings and visibilities in SHRA and mist are likely
to linger through much of the morning hours, with improvement
expected after 17Z. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will
be possible this afternoon from 17Z through 21Z, with a 30% chance
of storms moving on station today.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for COZ067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...EHR