545
FXUS65 KPUB 181126
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
526 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slight upturn in thunderstorm chances over the southeast
  plains this afternoon/evening.

- Hot temperatures and daily mountain showers/storms will continue
through most of this week.

- After a brief lull in activity Wednesday-Thursday, more active
  weather will return to the area late week and into this
  weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Today and Tonight...Upper-level ridge wobbles back west today, while
mid/upper level flow aloft increases slightly as weak wave moves
through the central Rockies. This should allow for slightly better
moisture/instability to work westward on the plains, with CAPE over
1000 J/KG along the KS border by mid/late afternoon. Wave to the
north should add at least a slight bump up in upward vertical
motion, while very modest increase in deep layer shear may nudge up
storm strength as well. New SWODY1 has shifted the marginal risk for
severe storms southward on the plains into Kiowa County as a result,
though stronger storms look to stay farther north in nern CO/nwrn
KS/srn NE where forcing is better. CAMs in rough agreement, with
storms firing along the Palmer Divide/Raton Mesa, then strengthening
as they move east toward KS. Gusty winds to 60 mph the main storm
hazard, though some low end severe hail is possible over the far
east where instability is higher. A few CAMs hint at a larger scale
cold pool/outflow sweeping across the plains Mon evening, bringing a
period of gusty winds to many locations toward sunset. Monday`s max
temps look little changed from Sunday`s readings, as mid level
heights/temps remain relatively steady.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

Broad upper-high will settle over the Four Corners Region as we head
into the middle of the week. On Tuesday, recycled moisture will
allow for another round of isolated to scattered storms, largely
focused over the higher terrain in the afternoon. Latest guidance is
lacking in instability over the mountainous areas, with the best
chances for storms over the Pikes Peak Region and our southeast
mountains. Most likely outcome for storm impacts at this time
appears to be gusty outflow winds from high-based storms, along and
adjacent to the I-25 corridor.

As the high pressure settles over Colorado, Wednesday-Thursday will
be a bit on the drier side. Much lower POPs across the area, and
only a few isolated showers possible over the higher terrain each
afternoon. Meanwhile, temperatures remain consistent with the
previous few days and remain above average. Highs will be in the 80s-
90s across most of our CWA, with warmest temps over the far eastern
plains.

Later this week and into the weekend, more monsoon moisture will
make its way into our area. Coupled with a frontal passage Friday
afternoon, the chance for some heavy rain over and near the
mountains seems fairly likely. Will have to keep an eye on how
things look for flash flooding risk as we get closer to date.
Temperatures will also drop a bit behind the front, cooling down
towards seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM MDT Mon Aug 18 2025

VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24
hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Surface winds are forecast to be diurnal in direction and generally
under 15 kts. Have updated the TAFs to account for a higher
probability of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon,
particularly at KCOS. Storms are expected over the Palmer
between 21-01Z, though may be isolated to scattered in nature.
Have put in a TEMPO group for this, along with an added PROB30
group at KPUB around the same time, as some storms may also
manage to move off of the Wet Mountains. Gusty outflow to 30
knots or so will be possible.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO