119
FXUS65 KPUB 101131
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
531 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tropical moisture moves into the mountains today. Showers and
  storms will bring heavy rainfall and flooding concerns heading
  into this weekend.

- Rain showers are expected along the mountains Saturday, with
  the greatest coverage across the San Juan Mountains.

- Flood will be possible across the San Juan Mountains Saturday
  into Saturday night.

- Showers persist on and off across the mountains through
  midweek next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 313 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Looking aloft over the region, a center of high pressure continues
getting shoved off to our south as a deep trough moves onto the west
coast. Strong southwest winds overhead will continue funneling in
tropical moisture to the mountains, leading to some potential
impacts starting today.

PWAT values continue to increase with the influx of moisture, with
models showing several rounds of showers and thunderstorms over the
Continental Divide. Soils will continue to saturate throughout the
day, increasing the potential for runoff and flooding concerns.
Scattered to widespread showers will be present across our western
mountains this morning, with another round spreading across the
Continental Divide tonight, though POPs remain at least scattered
through the short-term. The eastern San Juans are expected to get
the heaviest, and most persistent rainfall, with a Flood Watch in
effect starting this afternoon. Best chances for flash flooding will
be later tonight into early Saturday morning.

The eastern plains should remain generally dry during this period,
though a few isolated showers may push just east of the mountains
before dissipating. Skies are expected to remain mostly cloudy.

High temperatures will be in the 40s-50s over the mountains today,
meaning that little to no snow is expected, save for some of the
highest peaks. The current forecast generally has snow levels
remaining above 13,500 feet. Cloud cover will keep temperatures down
over the mountain valleys and parts of the plains, with high-60s for
the valleys and 70s to mid-80s over the plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 313 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Saturday: Saturday brings active weather to much of the mountains
and valleys, with quieter conditions elsewhere. Synoptically,
southwesterly flow will be in place, though with the remnants of the
tropical system Priscilla being ejected across south central and
southeastern Colorado. This pattern will bring an overall increase
in forcing, along with a surge of moisture. With the increased
forcing and moisture, widespread showers are expected along the
mountains, though with the greatest coverage of showers across the
San Juan Mountains, where orographic forcing will be strongest and
most persistent. Throughout the day, an additional 1-1.5 inches of
liquid is anticipated to fall along the San Juan Mountains, with
lesser values across the rest of the higher terrain. Confidence
remains high (80%) in this QPF range given continued strong support
from model guidance. Most, if not all, of the precipitation is
expected to be rain given the warmer nature of this system, and snow
levels around and above 13,500ft. With moderate to heavy rain this
past Thursday and Friday, and this additional liquid, flooding will
be possible across the San Juan Mountains, especially under any
convectively enhanced showers that develop. Elsewhere, showers are
expected to spill across the valleys and at least the I-25 corridor
area of the plains given the southwesterly flow, though with much
lesser QPF totals. Outside of all of that, mostly cloudy to cloudy
conditions are expected areawide, with breezy conditions for many,
especially across the eastern plains where wind gusts of around 35
mph are expected. Looking at temperatures, much of the eastern
plains will remain above seasonal values given downsloping winds
throughout the day, with the valleys and mountains hovering around
seasonal values.

Saturday Night - Thursday: For the rest of the long term period,
unsettled weather continues for south central and southeastern
Colorado. Southwesterly flow will remain in place over the area as
broad longwave troughing sits across the western US, with embedded
shortwaves drifting near/over the region. While model guidance is in
good agreement about the overall broader troughing, there is still
some uncertainty in how the embedded shortwaves will eventually
evolve and influence the area, especially during midweek, lowering
forecast confidence a tad. With that said though, this pattern is
expected to bring increased forcing, with at least modest moisture
remaining in place. Given the forcing and moisture, showers are
anticipated to continue on and off along the higher terrain, with
some spill over across the valleys and plains possible.
Precipitation chance may increase to become more areawide late
Monday and into Tuesday though as another northward surge in moisture
takes place, though this will be highly dependent on how one of the
shortwaves evolves during this timeframe. Beyond all of that,
periods of heightened cloud cover and breezy winds will persist,
especially as the shortwaves influence the region. As for
temperatures. Sunday will be a repeat of Saturday, with warm and
above seasonal temperatures across the plains, and seasonal values
for the valleys and mountains. Then for Monday onward, a drop in
temperatures is anticipated as a cold front pushes southward early
in the week, bringing below to near seasonal temperatures to entire
region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 529 AM MDT Fri Oct 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected at KCOS and KPUB through 24 hours, with
winds following regular diurnal patterns. Mid-level clouds will
continue to increase through the forecast period.

KALS will experience mostly VFR conditions, though will see
lowering clouds around MVFR as showers move past today and
tonight. No precipitation is currently expected at the terminal,
but will monitor trends for anything that drifts further off of
the mountains.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from noon MDT today through Saturday evening for
COZ067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO