287
FXUS65 KPUB 161109
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
509 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms possible for the far southeast plains this
afternoon and evening.

- Spotty Critical Fire Weather conditions possible along the
  I-25 Corridor though rainfall overnight may have helped
  moisten fuels which should keep conditions more localized

- Mainly dry and mild for much of the extended period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 319 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Impulse/Upper jet ejecting northeastward across CO on the southwest
periphery of the Great Basin upper low has been forcing a line of
showers and thunderstorms across the southeast plains. Dew points
have climbed into the 50s across the southeast plains along and east
of the surface trough axis in deep southerly flow.  Considerable
shear (50 kts) but limited CAPE (under 500 J/kg) has kept storm
strengths sub-severe but has brought some brief locally heavy
rainfall to locations along the I-25 corridor.  This broken band of
showers and thunderstorms is projected to move east and diminish
through the remainder of the early morning hours.

As the upper low lifts to the northeast across WY/MT today, the
surface trough/frontal boundary will shift eastward, resulting in
drying out west, and another round of thunderstorms possible across
the far eastern plains in the afternoon and evening.  Dew points
dropping into the 20s and teens across the mountains combined with
gusty west winds up to 30-35 mph would normally raise concerns for
critical fire weather conditions across some of our valleys and I-25
corridor west of the surface trough axis. However recent rains out
west, and showers and thunderstorms this morning along the I-25
corridor, have brought, or are currently producing, wetting rains to
some of the region which should mitigate fire weather concerns here
today. Winds are a bit on the marginal side as well, so will not
hoist any fire weather highlights on the I-25 corridor where
concerns would be greatest. Meanwhile, thunderstorm chances this
afternoon will stay to the east of a line from roughly La Junta to
Kim.  Mean HREF CAPE values increase to up to 1000 J/kg in the
afternoon with deep layer shears around 40-50 kts.  Generally
straight line hodographs would suggest splitting supercells with
quick evolution towards line segments as higher LCLs support
stronger cold pools.  Hail up to 1.25 inches in diameter, and
locally damaging gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary storm
threats.

Thunderstorm activity should shift eastward into KS this evening
leaving clearing skies across southern CO.  The mountains and
valleys will cool into the teens and 20s for overnight lows, while
the southeast plains should see sufficient drainage winds and mixing
behind the front to keep low temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s
for most of the area. Will need to watch the Palmer Divide for
potential frost or brief light freeze tonight though.  Probabilities
of freezing to sub freezing temperatures in the NBM are around 30%
or less for the crest of the Palmer Divide, with most areas around
10% or less.  Its possible this area may need a Frost highlight, but
given the low probability will let later shifts make the call.
-KT

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 319 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Overall, good agreement between the operational guidance with
low ensemble spreads across Colorado through the extended
period.

Friday...an upper trough is forecast to stretch from Nebraska,
back southwest across Colorado, shifting east across the Eastern
Plains during the afternoon. Temperatures look to be a bit
cooler, with highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s across
the lower elevations. No precipitation is forecast at this time
on Friday.

Friday night through Sunday...the upper trough is forecast to
continue eastward overnight, while the next upper wave begins to
move into the area. Overnight lows Friday night will fall into
the mid 30s along the lower Arkansas River Valley and lower 40s
for much of the rest of the Plains. The upper system will drop
south across Wyoming, and into western Kansas on Saturday. This
will send a cold front south across the Plains late in the day,
with winds switching northerly, with gusts near 30 mph possible.
Afternoon highs will reach in the upper 60s to lower 70s across
the Plains. Winds look to subside Saturday night, and will allow
for temperatures to fall in the lower to mid 30s across the
Plains by Sunday morning. For the most part, lows look to remain
at or above freezing, and frost may be possible. Those with
sensitive outdoor vegetation may want to take precautions to
protect them. Flat upper ridging will spread across the area on
Sunday, with continued dry conditions across the region. High
temperatures on Sunday will reach into the 70s across the
Plains.

Monday through Tuesday...the next upper storm system will drop
south across Colorado for early next week. The track will be
northerly, with winds being the primary concern across the area.
Across the high terrain, a few showers will be possible, mainly
from the La Garita Range, north across the Central Mountains,
and perhaps in the Palmer Divide late Monday into the overnight
hours. Any snow looks to remain confined to above 10 kft, with
minor accumulations possible. Breezy, westerly flow will help
temperatures warm nicely on Monday, with highs pushing the lower
80s on the Plains. A cold front will arrive late in the day,
with winds switching northerly, with strong gusts possible.
Overnight lows into Tuesday morning will fall into the mid 30s
to lower 40s across the Plains. The upper system will quickly
shift to our east Tuesday morning with upper ridging building
across the Rockies by the evening. Temperatures will be much
cooler Tuesday afternoon, with upper 50s to mid 60s across the
Plains.

Wednesday into Thursday...dry conditions, with upper ridging
spreading across the region are forecast for mid next week.
Temperatures will remain cooler, with mainly 60s to near 70 for
highs. A couple of shower could begin to impact the San Juan
Range by Thursday, as an upper low moves across the Desert
Southwest.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 505 AM MDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites over the next 24 hours
with breezy southwest winds increasing by 15-18z at all three
terminals. There will be short window for low level wind shear
at KCOS this morning before surface winds shift out of the
south around 15z. Otherwise southwest winds will gust to around
20-25 kts at all three terminals in the afternoon. Winds will
shift out of the northwest then north at KCOS and KPUB after
00z as a front moves through the region. Winds at KALS will become
light and southerly overnight. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...KT