885
FXUS65 KPUB 182114
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
314 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Beneficial precipitation is likely for the entire forecast
  area over the next 24 hours.

- Snow continues for the mtns, valleys, and I-25 corridor
  region, with heaviest snow over the greater Wet Mountain
  region, with some travel impacts expected from about 6000 feet
  and above, especially after 6 PM.

- Sub-freezing temperatures likely Saturday night, then warming
  and drying trend for Sunday into early next week.

- Increasing chances for thunderstorms starting Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 314 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Next 24 hours...

Beneficial Easter Weekend weather system promises to bring a mixed
bag of precip to the region as a broad trough moves across the
region. A few things associated with this system look promising as
this system will have quite a bit of cold air with it (so confidence
in precip type is high), the column is deep and saturated, and the
upslope, albeit relatively weak, is fairly deep and lasts
through the forecast period. QPF with this system should range
to over an inch of liquid over the wet mtns to 0.20 to 0.50 over
the plains. This anticipated precip will help put a damper over
the fire weather threat for at least the next several days.

Guidance indicates that the southern sections of the upper Arkansas
River valley (Buena Vista/Salida regions) may fare fairly well with
this event along with the wet mtn valley region. Additionally, some
locally heavy snow may eventually develop over the western sections
of the San Luis valley region during the daylight hours tomorrow.
Snowfall depths over the valley floor, however, may be tricky as it
will fall during the daylight hours tomorrow, which may limit
accumulations over the valley floor. This may be a case where
several inches will fall over the grassy areas, but impacts on the
valley floor may be minimal due to melting.

As for El Paso county, the brunt of the heavier snow will fall
tonight, and this will favor accumulating slush on the roadways.
especially across areas from Downtown COS northward to Monument.
Would not be all that surprised to see 4 to 8 inch amounts over
northern El Paso county, especially on the grassy area, porch
decks, etc. Road temperatures this afternoon are plenty warm to
keep the pavement wet all across the Palmer Divide, but by 6 PM
those temperatures should drop and slick travel is expected
until early Saturday morning.

For tomorrow over the lower elevations, temps tomorrow will likely
get into the upper 30s to 40s most regions, and this should help
mitigate (but not eliminate) any impacts of snow accumulating on
roadways, although grassy areas will see some accumulating snow,
especially over the southern I-25 corridor region.

Surface winds with this system look minimal, so blowing snow impacts
appear to be quite low.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 314 PM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Saturday night...Upper trough will extend from the Dakotas south
across Colorado, with the closed upper low located over NM. This
system will track east across Colorado through the evening,
with a majority of the activity focused across the higher
terrain and southern half of the forecast area. Any additional
snowfall amounts are forecast to come to an end by midnight. As
this trough continue east overnight, activity will then shift
east after midnight with diminishing precip from west to east,
lingering the latest over the southeast corner and along the
eastern border. Partial clearing is anticipated overnight as
drier northwest flow begins to filter in, allowing overnight
minimum temps to drop into the teens for the high valleys, and
20s to around 30F for the plains. Temperature-sensitive outdoor
plants may need to be protected for the night.

Sunday through Tuesday...As the upper low trough exits to the east.
northwest flow aloft settles in across CO for Sunday, providing for
a slightly warmer and drier day across the forecast area. There will
still be some isolated convective showers along the Continental
Divide during the afternoon, but for the most part conditions
will stabilize with high temps around 50F for the high valleys
and mid 50s to mid 60s for the plains. For Monday and Tuesday
another upper shortwave crosses the northern Rockies, producing
westerly flow aloft across the forecast area leading to a few
isolated showers for the central mtns, and dry elsewhere with
much warmer temps. Look for highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s
for the high valleys, and upper 60s to near 80F for the plains.

Wednesday through Friday...Continued warm through the end of the
work week with an increasing probability of strong to severe weather
developing across the eastern plains each afternoon and evening. A
deepening trough over the West Coast will shift flow aloft
across the Four Corners to a more west-southwest direction,
while strengthening high pressure over the southeastern US will
draw Gulf moisture up across TX and OK. Increasing wind shear,
combined with Dryline interactions, will lead to enhanced
thunderstorm potential starting Wed. As for maximum temps each
day, plan on 60s for the high valleys, and mid 60s to mid 70s
for the plains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Upper system crossing the area will bring widespread -rasn, low cigs
and vsby across all of the forecast area through the period period,
affecting the three  ain TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.

KCOS and KPUB: MVFR conditions through 20z, then IFR conditions
remainder of period with -rasn switching to -sn, low cigs and
lowering vsby. NE winds gusting to 25kts at times between 02z
and 10z.

KALS: VFR/MVFR conditions through 04z, then IFR conditions with -sn,
low cigs and lowering vsby. East winds developing after 04z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MDT Saturday for COZ058>061-
063>067.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM MDT Saturday for COZ062-
076>078-081>083.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT Saturday for COZ068-
072>075-079-080-087-088.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Saturday for COZ084.
Winter Weather Advisory until noon MDT Saturday for COZ085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH