624
FXUS65 KPUB 300504
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1104 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record high temperatures possible Monday afternoon

- Dry through the extended period.

- Cool on Tuesday, warming back up for the rest of the extended.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024

Currently...

Besides a few isolated weak storms in the higher terrain, skies were
mostly sunny across the region. Temps across the plains early this
afternoon were in the U70s to L80s, with temps around 70 over the
valleys.

Next 24 hours...

Any storms over the higher terrain this afternoon will quickly
dissipate after sunset. MINs tonight will be in the 50s across most
of the plains with temps around 60F along the mtns/plains interface.
A lee trough will begin to develop late tonight across the plains
and winds along the I-25 corridor will take on a NW component by
sunrise.

For tomorrow, with downslope flow in the morning due to the lee
troughing, temps will warm up rapidly. Temps will likely reach
around record values most, if not all, sites tomorrow. Although a
cool front will begin to push across the plains by mid day, it will
be hot a good part of the day as the cooler air is going to lag
behind the front. In matter of fact, the record values may occur
shortly after the front goes by as the boundary will mix the low
level air, and temps may shoot up 2-3 degrees as the low level air
mixes.

As for precip, once again we may see very isolated storms over the
higher terrain tomorrow, with the best chance south of US50.

Fcst Max temps tomorrow... COS - 87, PUB - 94, ALS - 81
Record Max temps tomorrow, COS - 87, PUB - 94, ALS - 82

/Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 206 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024

The 12z GFS has come into line with the ECMWF and Canadian through
the extended, with high pressure building overhead for the last half
of the extended.  This will help keep winds on the lighter side and
limit any near critical fire weather conditions later in the
forecast period.  The high pressure will also mean hotter
temperatures.

Monday night through Sunday... An upper system passing well to the
north will bring a brief cool down for Tuesday. High temperatures
will be more seasonable, with mostly 70s across the lower
elevations.  However, temperatures will quickly warm back through
the 80s and lower 90s by Wednesday.  A second, weaker cold front
will back across the Plains on Thursday with slightly cooler air for
both Thursday into Friday. Temperatures on the Plains will still
rise well into the 80s.  These warm temperatures will continue
through the weekend.  Cumulus cloud development will be likely over
the higher terrain each afternoon and early evening that may produce
isolated light precipitation over the San Juan and southern Sangre
de Cristo Ranges.  But, most of the area looks to remain dry, and
did not include any pops throughout the extended period.  As
mentioned above, with the high pressure over the region for last
half of the extended period, winds look to be lighter, and
therefore, very limited critical fire weather conditions are
expected. Mozley

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1102 PM MDT Sun Sep 29 2024

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours with light winds
expected at KALS and KPUB overnight.  KCOS will start to see enhanced
northerly winds after 09z and KPUB will see enhanced northwest winds
Monday morning ahead of a cold front which will bring a northeast to
easterly wind shift with gusts up to 30 kts at both sites through the
afternoon.  KALS will see north winds increase during the late afternoon
with easterly winds spreading through La Veta Pass and into the terminal
area after 00z as the front deepens on along the east slopes.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&



$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MOORE