


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
070 FXUS65 KPUB 130917 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 317 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Life threatening flooding and water impacts are possible near the eastern San Juans today, where a Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Noon tomorrow. - Rain and snow chances are expected for much of the area, along with cooler temperatures and mostly cloudy skies. - Strong storms possible across the San Juan Mountains Wednesday afternoon. - Cool down expected for the weekend, with near seasonal temperatures expected to return. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 312 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Currently.. Our post frontal winds have weakened significantly through the overnight hours, but have continued to be mainly easterly and northeasterly across the plains. We`re around 10 degrees cooler than this time yesterday, with temperatures in the 40s and low 50s on the plains as of 2 AM. Dewpoints are much drier on the plains as well, with readings in the teens over the Pikes Peak region, 20s for much of the rest of the plains, and 30s for the San Luis Valley. Moist southwesterly flow is already increasing over our southwest mountains though, and a dewpoint reading of 37 was observed this hour at KPSO in Pagosa Springs just to our southwest. MRMS shows the beginnings of some light showery activity well off to our southwest. For now, no returns have been noted on our side of the state line this morning. Today and Tonight.. The main forecast concern for today will continue to be entirely related to flood concerns for the high country, particularly for the San Juans. This area saw over 4 inches of rain over the weekend and already has saturated soils, full waterways, and potentially weakened structures from fast moving water resulting from the weekend`s events. The additional 2-3 inches of rain that is forecast to fall in the next 24 hours could quickly lead to life threatening flooding, road washouts, damage to infrastructure, rock, mud, or debris slides on roadways, or fast moving water through waterfront parks and campgrounds in nearby creeks, streams, tributaries, and rivers. Hikers and campers should avoid waterways today, and especially tonight, as flooding and evacuation can be extremely dangerous during the nighttime hours. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Noon on Tuesday for the eastern San Juan Mountains and the Upper Rio Grande Valley. Please have a way to receive life saving Flood Warnings today and tonight if you are in this area, and never drive through moving water! Models keep rain chances in place from around 6AM this morning through Noon tomorrow for most of the high country, with highest QPF amounts and most favorable lapse rates and CAPE profiles for warm rain processes focused over the eastern San Juans from late this morning through late this evening. Rain rates don`t look to taper off until after 10 PM or so this evening. Snow levels are currently hanging out down around 10,000ft, and Wolf Creek Pass actually reported some light snow earlier Sunday night. As warm, moist, southwesterly flow increases, snow-levels are expected to jump up to around 13,000ft for most of the day today, especially for our southwest mountains, which will lead to most precipitation falling as rain today, especially south of the Rio Grande. Our central mountains will keep those lower snow-levels around longer though, and could see around 3-5 inches of new snow early this morning for peaks above 9,000ft. The Sangres and the rest of the high country all have decent rain and snow (above 10,000ft) chances as well, though amounts will be much less impactful outside of the San Juans. Rain chances sneak into the I-25 corridor later this afternoon and into this evening, and though best chances with stay west of us, isolated activity will be possible for much of the plains late this afternoon and into this evening as well. Outside of rain and snow chances, expect much cooler temperatures on the plains today, with highs topping out in the 50s over the Pikes Peak region and over northern mountain valleys. Highs in the 60s are likely elsewhere across the southern San Luis Valley and for the rest of the plains. Partly to mostly cloudy skies and breezy winds are likely for most areas today as well. Overnight lows back down into the 40s for both the San Luis Valley and the plains are expected, with continued chances for isolated to scattered showery precipitation for most areas lingering into Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 312 AM MDT Mon Oct 13 2025 Tuesday: For Tuesday, an active weather pattern remains in place for south central and southeastern Colorado. Southwesterly flow will persist between troughing to the west and ridging to the southeast. While no major forcing is expected, orographic forcing is expected to continue, with the strongest across the San Juan Mountains. Along with that, the moisture plume that has been in place the past few days will remain in place. With the orographic forcing and moisture, scattered to numerous showers are anticipated along the mountains, with the greatest coverage of showers across the San Juan Mountains. This pattern will still be relatively warm, and snow levels will hover around and above 12,000ft throughout the day, so most additional precipitation will fall as rain, with slushy snow along the mountain peaks. Elsewhere, isolated to scattered showers are expected across the plains as they push to northeast off of the higher terrain. As for the plains, pockets of isolated light showers are expected as a weak wave within the broader flow ejects to the northeast, bringing a minor boost to forcing and support for this area. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies are anticipated, with breezy winds for much of the region, but especially across the plains and valleys. Looking at temperatures, Tuesday starts a short lived warming trend, with temperatures warming to above seasonal values across the plains as downsloping winds develop during the day. As for the mountains and valleys, near seasonal temperatures are expected. Tuesday Night - Wednesday: Heading into midweek, active weather remains, though with a pattern change starting to take place. Southwesterly flow will continue over south central and southeastern Colorado, though the troughing out west will start its push eastward during this period. While major forcing will stay further west, orographic forcing will persist. In addition, the moisture plume will still be in place, however, drier air will start to filter into the area as the trough approaches, lessening the magnitude of the moisture plume. With all of that said, showers are still anticipated across the mountains, though much less in coverage and more isolated to scattered in nature. Along with that, a strong storm or two will be possible across the San Juan Mountains region Wednesday afternoon given increasing bulk shear despite meager instability. Strong wind gusty and hail would be the primary hazards with any stronger storm that develops. Elsewhere, dry conditions are expected, though an isolated shower across the valleys will be possible as showers again push off the higher terrain to the northeast. Outside of all of that, breezy winds are expected to continue for the region as flow aloft starts to increase in response to the approaching trough, with partly to mostly cloudy skies persisting. Temperatures during midweek continue to warm, with above seasonal values for much of the area. Thursday - Sunday: For the end of the week and through the weekend, active weather continues, though with an overall down trend for south central and southeastern Colorado. The troughing pattern will push over the region, bringing an increase in forcing, though with a decrease in moisture as drier air advects in behind the initial eastward push. Confidence remains fairly high (70-80%) in this pattern change given persistent strong agreement between model guidance. There is still some uncertainty however in how individual waves within the broader flow will ultimately evolve, lowering forecast confidence a tad. With that all said though, mountain showers are expected to continue given persistent orographic forcing, though much more isolated in nature given the drier air. As for the plains and valleys, dry conditions are anticipated to prevail, though with some isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon associated with the initial trough passage. Beyond all of that, partly cloudy skies will continue, with breezy winds expected Thursday, and relatively light winds thereafter. As for temperatures, a drop back down to around seasonal values is anticipated as the unsettled pushes over and filters colder air into region. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1049 PM MDT Sun Oct 12 2025 At KALS, VFR overnight, then gradually lowering VFR cigs during the day Mon, along with vcsh possible after 12z. Better chance for showers develops Mon afternoon, with a prob30 and potentially brief MVFR conditions starting at 20z. Showers will become more persistent after 00z, with MVFR vis likely. Light s-se winds overnight will become more sly on Mon, with gusts over 20 kts after 18z, then diminishing after 00z. At KCOS and KPUB, VFR the next 24 hrs, with periods of VFR cigs (bkn070-080) overnight and through the day on Monday. E-NE winds will continue overnight, then becoming more sely Mon morning. SE winds then increase Mon afternoon, with few gusts to 20 kts at KCOS. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for COZ067-068. && $$ SHORT TERM...EHR LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...PETERSEN