205
FXUS65 KPUB 100955
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
355 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread sub-freezing temperatures expected this morning for
  the San Luis Valley until 9 AM.

- Warm and dry yet again, with high temperatures running around
  10 to 15 degrees above the seasonal averages.

- Unseasonably warm and dry through Saturday.

- Cooler Sunday into early next week with possible mountain
  showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 351 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Today and tonight...

Currently, there is a Freeze Warning for the San Luis Valley until 9
AM, due to a widespread area of sub-freezing temperatures this
morning.

A positively tilted longwave ridge over the central CONUS continues
to dominate the region with high pressure conditions in place. Due
to this, it will be warm yet again with temperatures likely being
around 10 to 15  degrees above the seasonal average for this time of
year, especially for the plains due to some weak downsloping winds.
Expect highs to reach into the mid to upper 80s for a majority of
the plains, and even up into the low 90s for some areas within the
lower Arkansas River Valley. For the higher terrain, it will be
generally in the 70s for the upper Arkansas River Valley and San
Luis Valley, with 50s and 60s for the higher elevations, and 40s for
the "fourteeners". There will only be some developing mid level
clouds and high clouds transitioning overhead throughout the day and
into the evening, which will continue to dissipate going into the
overnight hours. With some efficient radiational cooling, temps
tonight will fall around the freezing mark again for the central San
Luis Valley (namely, Alamosa and in vicinity of the Rio Grande
Riverbed), however, sub-freezing temperatures do not appear to be
widespread enough at this time to warrant another Freeze Warning for
tonight. For the plains, lows will drop into the mid 40s to low 50s,
and into the mid 30s to mid 40s elsewhere across high country.
-Stewey

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 351 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Friday-Saturday...Modest westerly flow aloft remains progged across
the region through the early weekend, as eastern Pacific energy
translates across the Northern Tier into the Upper Midwest. The
modest downslope and warm air aloft associated with flat upper level
ridging will lead to continued unseasonably warm daytime highs in
the 60, 70s and 80s, with overnight lows around seasonal levels in
the 30s and 40s, save for the 50s in the banana belt across the
higher terrain west of the I-25 Corridor. Latest models continue to
indicate a weak front moving across the southeast Plains later
Friday morning and early afternoon, although there is not a lot of
cold air associated with the passing system. Models also continue to
indicate some passing mid and upper level clouds through the early
weekend, but not enough moisture to support any precipitation.

Sunday-Wednesday...A high amplitude pattern remains progged to develop
into early next week, with upper level ridging rebuilding across the
Great Basin and into the Rockies, as secondary energy digs down the
backside of the ridge across the Upper Great Lakes developing a broad
upper trough across the Central Conus. Models continue to differ on the
location of the coldest air associated with broad upper trough, with
latest operational and ensemble data trending further east with coolest
air and not as cool across south central and southeast Colorado. At any
rate, with surface high pressure building across the High Plains, we
should still see temperatures cooling closer to seasonal levels Sunday
into early next week. Longer range models also indicate increasing
available moisture across the Rockies, leading to possible afternoon
showers into early next week, mainly over and near the higher terrain.
Operational models and ensemble mean data also indicate the potential
for a stronger system bringing better chances of precipitation across
the Central Rockies late next week. Time will tell.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 351 AM MDT Thu Oct 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be light
(less than 10 kts) and primarily influenced by diurnal wind flow
patterns at all terminals. -Stewey

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ069>071.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWARD
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...STEWARD