186
FXUS65 KPUB 111743
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1143 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below normal temperatures for the plains today, with isolated
  to scattered afternoon and evening convection for the eastern
  mountains and southern border.

- Isolated to scattered showers/weak thunderstorms over the
  mountains Tue-Thu, then an upturn in convection Fri-Sun as
  moisture returns to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Currently...Some lingering convection along the Palmer Divide as
well as the southern border early this morning, and satellite
imagery is showing some stratus developing across the eastern
plains. Temps as of 1 AM have cooled into the 50s and 60s for most
locations, though the high valleys will likely bottom out in the
40s.

Today and tonight...Upper trough axis is expected to continue
east and out of CO today, allowing northwest flow aloft to settle as
high pressure starts to rebuild over CA and the Desert SW. The
northwest flow aloft will be a cool but dry flow, so the upper
levels will be drying out moving into the upcoming work week. At the
surface some llvl moisture remains, and model CAPE will hover around
1500-2000 j/kg. However, bulk shear is minimal at around 20 kts, so
general thunder is anticipated with the focus areas being the
eastern mts and the southern border, with activity gradually
diminishing over the southeast corner during the evening. Main
hazards with any storms that develop will be periods of moderate to
briefly heavy rain, cloud to ground lightning, small hail, and gusty
winds up to 40 MPH. Finally, also added some smoke and haze since hi-
res models were showing some effects along the Continental Divide
and the San Luis Valley through the first half of the day.

High temps today will continue to be below seasonal normals across
the plains, with mid 70s to lower 80s for most locations. Minimum
temps tonight are forecast to cool into the 40s for the high
valleys, and 50s across the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Upper level high pressure gradually expands from the desert sw
into the srn Rockies Tue-Thu, bringing back hot temperatures
and suppressing most convection across the area. Still just
enough recycled moisture around for some weak/short-lived storms
over the mountains each day, though again blended model
guidance looks rather overdone with pops through the period
compared to most 11/00z data, and thus cut back chances somewhat
through the period. QPF amounts look light Tue-Thu, just a few
hundredths at most with bulk of the storm activity. Temps will
nudge back upward toward seasonal averages Tue, then climb to
above average levels Wed/Thu as ridge builds. Could see a return
of near 100f readings across the lower Ark Valley, especially
on Thu as mid-level temps peak.

Ridge shifts far enough east that modest return of low/mid level
moisture develops starting Fri, persisting into the weekend. As
a result, most locations should see increased chances for
convection each day, with the best chance for storms over the
high terrain along and west of I-25. With greater moisture and
cloud cover, expect max temps to drift down slightly each day,
though readings will still be at to a little above average as
any cooling will be minor.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

VFR conditions with generally light, diurnal wind regimes
remain expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hours.
With more north to northwest flow aloft across the region
this afternoon, there will remaim a very slight chance of VCTS
20z-01z west of the terminals, but too low confidence to
include in TAFs at this time.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW