826
FXUS65 KPUB 222113
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
213 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few light showers are possible through this evening from the
Central Mountains, southeast to the Raton Mesa region.

- Remaining cool on Thursday with highs in the upper 20s to
  lower 30s.

- Active weather starts to return Friday night into Saturday,
  with an unsettled pattern in place through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

Currently...an upper trough is currently dropping south across
Colorado, spreading cloud cover off the higher terrain and across
the Plains.  Radar shows a few echos, from the Central Mountains,
southeast into the Sangre de Cristo and Wet Mountain ranges.  The
low levels are pretty dry, with dewpoint depressions 20 plus
degrees, so any precipitation that may be falling from these weak
radar echos is likely evaporating before reaching the ground.
Haven`t seen any mPING reports or surface stations reporting
precipitation, but a few light rain and snow showers may be possible
this afternoon.  Light snow will continue over the Central Mountains
through this afternoon.  Temperatures have remained steady this
afternoon in the upper 20s to lower 30s.  North winds are gusty
across the Plains, making it feel colder than the ambient
temperatures are.

Tonight and Thursday...the current upper trough will quickly drop
south into New Mexico this evening.  Expect light snow showers, from
the Central Mountains to the Raton Mesa area into this evening,
coming to an end from northwest to southeast by midnight.  Again,
not anticipating more than a few flurries or sprinkles, with perhaps
a light dusting over the southern Sangre de Cristo peaks.  North
winds will continue to be breezy this evening, dissipating
overnight.  Clearing skies and cold air across the region will lead
to overnight lows in the single digits across the Plains, and -10 to
-15 degrees F for the San Luis Valley.

A secondary upper trough will quickly drop south along the Utah-
Colorado border on Thursday morning.  Another surge of cold air will
accompany this upper system, with highs on the Plains only warming
into the upper 20s to lower 30s for Thursday afternoon.  A few light
snow showers will be possible over the Central Mountains through the
morning hours, clearing during the afternoon.  Dry conditions are
expected across the Plains.  Mozley

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

Thursday Night...

Nice clear skies for Thursday night with brisk westerly winds. The
westerly winds should help keep temperatures a little warmer in the
banana belt region, reaching into the lower teens. The plains will
be in the single digits, while the mountain valleys will fall below
zero Thursday night into Friday morning.

Friday...

A ridge will move across Colorado making for a pleasant day for most
of the day on Friday. There will be a chance for isolated snow
showers in the higher elevations Friday night. There will be mostly
clear skies throughout the early part of the day, but clouds will
increase through the afternoon into the evening hours. Looking at
temperatures, were expecting near average or average values, as the
westerly winds will cause a downsloping effect, and that will help
warm the region.

Saturday through Wednesday...

Latest model guidance still shows a ridge which starts to flatten
out Saturday, with a cut-off low developing across the west-
southwest. Considering there are multiple models showing very
similar results, confidence with this system coming to fruition
is quite high. There is still some uncertainty in storm track,
intensity, and timing so confidence remains low in regards to
those aspects. Regardless, there is still a higher probability
of some snow showers on Saturday for the I-25 corridor, but
accumulations look to be minimal at the moment. There will be
some increased cloud cover during this period, especially over
the weekend, with winds remaining relatively light, but there
could be some increased windspeeds along and behind cold fronts.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM MST Wed Jan 22 2025

KALS...VFR conditions the next 24 hours with periods of mid and high
clouds.  Winds will gust near 25 kts this afternoon, before
dissipating overnight.  Winds look to remain less than 10 kts on
Thursday afternoon.

KCOS and KPUB...VFR conditions through the next 24 horus at both
terminals.  Periods of mid and high clouds will impact both sites
into tonight before clearing.  Gusty north winds near 25 to 30 kts
will remain possible into early evening, before winds dissipate
overnight.  A few wind gusts near 25 kts will be possible Thursday
afternoon. Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...CLOUSE
AVIATION...MOZLEY