426
FXUS65 KPUB 031701
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1101 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain
  today with slightly better coverage, especially along the
  ContDvd, Thursday.

- Temperatures remaining at above seasonal levels through Thursday.

- Rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
  coverage over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis continues to
indicate modest north to northwest flow aloft across the region,
with upper level ridging in place across the Great Basin and
Intermountain West, while stronger short wave is digging down the
backside of the ridge across the Upper Midwest and Northern High
Plains at this time. Satellite imagery and regional radars as of
1 am are indicating a few showers and linger clouds across the
southern San de Cristo and eastern San Juan mtns at this time.

Latest model data supports flow drier air within the northerly flow
aloft moving across the region today, with the latest HREF data
indicating mean CAPE of less than 400 j/kg over the higher terrain
this afternoon. This, along with no evident trigger within the flow
will lead to less coverage of afternoon showers and storms, with
with isolated at best high based storms confined to the higher terrain
today. Further east, models continue to support the passing Northern
High Plains wave will send a dry backdoor front across the eastern
Plains later this morning and afternoon. The main impact from said
front will be breezy northerly winds of 15-30 mph expected behind
its passage across the plains. As for temperatures, the passing front
will help to mix the atmosphere and allowing temperatures to warm
from yesterdays readings, with highs mid 80s to lower 90s expected
across the plains, with similar readings as the past few days in
the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain, with a few readings
in the lower 80s across the mountain valleys.  Any convection wanes
through the early evening, with clearing skies overnight, leading to
near seasonal lows in the 50s across the plains, and 30s and 40s across
the higher terrain.

For Thursday, latest models are now indicating slightly more available
moisture working into the region from the west, leading to better
coverage afternoon showers and storms over and near the higher terrain,
with the best coverage along and west of the ContDvd. With upper level
ridging and warm air in place, temperatures to warm quickly through
the day Thursday, with highs above seasonal levels in the upper 80s to
mid 90s across the plains and in the 60s to low 80s across the higher
terrain. Model data does support another stronger short wave digging
across High Plains later Thursday, which will drop a stronger front
across the plains Thursday night, which will set the stage for a cooler
and wetter end of the work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 324 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

Thursday Night - Sunday: For the end of the week and through the
weekend, an uptick in active weather is anticipated for south
central and southeastern Colorado. A messy pattern will be in place
over the region, with shortwaves/disturbance pushing over, bringing
an increase in forcing. Along with that, an uptick in moisture is
expected as a tropical system from the Pacific gets pulled into the
broader flow and passes near the region. With the increase in both
forcing and moisture, showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
across the area. Coverage of showers and storms will be greatest
during the afternoon hours, and along the higher terrain where
forcing will be maximized. Otherwise, winds will be light, to at
time breezy, and around 10-15 mph as the disturbances pass over,
with partly to mostly cloudy skies through this period given the
unsettled pattern. As for temperatures, a cool down to below
seasonal values is anticipated thanks to a cold front passage
Thursday night.

Monday - Tuesday: For the start of next week, some active weather
will persist for portions of south central and southeastern
Colorado. A pattern change is expected, with westerly flow to modest
ridging anticipated. While no major forcing is expected with this
pattern, orographic forcing will continue. In addition, while richer
moisture will get pushed eastward, modest moisture is anticipated to
remain in place. With some forcing and moisture still in place,
showers and thunderstorms are expected each day, though will be more
isolated to scattered in nature, and mostly restricted to the higher
terrain. Beyond all of that, winds will become more relatively
light, with periods of increased cloud cover during the afternoons.
Looking at temperatures, a minor warmup is anticipated, with much of
the region returning back to seasonal values.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1053 AM MDT Wed Sep 3 2025

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites over the next 24 hours
with breezy north winds gusting up to 20-25 kts at KCOS and KPUB
through early afternoon. Winds at both terminals will shift
around from the east to southeast towards 00z then become light
north to northwesterly overnight in a more typical diurnally
driven flow pattern. KALS will see generally light winds
through the next 24 hours with speeds under 15 kts. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...KT