185
FXUS65 KPUB 120933
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
333 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and dry with increasing winds today.

- Warm and dry conditions persist into the work week, with showers
returning to the Central mountains on Wednesday.

- Some fire weather concerns, mostly mitigated by how wet the
  area has been the past week.&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 331 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates modest
west to southwest flow aloft across the region, with drier air noted
moving into western Colorado ahead of a strong low pressure system
moving onshore across the West Coast at this time.

Latest model data supports the drier air embedded within the
expected increasing southwest flow aloft across the region through
the day today. The increasing southwest flow aloft and expected good
mixing leads to breezy southwest winds across the region this
afternoon, as well as the drier air mixing down to the surface
leading to increasing fire danger, especially across the San Luis
Valley. However, recent rains and green up will likely ease fire
danger. Temperatures to warm another few degrees with highs well
above seasonal levels into the 80s to lower 90s across the Plains,
with highs mainly 60s and 70s across the higher terrain. There looks
to be enough residual moisture to support a few cumulus across the
higher terrain, but no precipitation is expected across the region.
Overnight lows will again be mild in the 40s to low 50s across the
Plains and mainly in the 30s across the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

Tuesday-Wednesday...

Through about mid-week, we will continue our prior warming and
drying trend. Meanwhile, southwest flow aloft will steadily increase
as an upper trough digs down from the Pacific Northwest and heads
into our region. Surface winds will similarly increase across our
forecast area, particularly on Wednesday, which will bring
widespread meteorological critical fire weather conditions to the
eastern plains and portions of the San Luis Valley. However, due to
the recent heavy rain event, fuels at this time are still far too
green to issue any fire weather highlights at this time. Otherwise,
mostly clear skies and breezy. High temperatures will be very warm
on Tuesday, with high-80s to low-90s over the plains and 70s for the
valleys. Wednesday`s highs will dependent on the timing of an
incoming cold front, but generally we can expect a noticeable
cooldown west of I-25 while the far eastern plains look to remain in
the mid-upper 80s. Winds will also be at their strongest for the
week during the afternoon, particularly over the San Luis Valley.
Will have to see how model solutions develop to determine the
chances for any severe-strength wind gusts.

As the upper trough moves in late Wednesday afternoon into the
evening, isolated to scattered showers will start popping up over
portions of the Central Mountains, though as of now coverage looks
rather low due to dry ambient conditions.

Wednesday Night Onwards...

As the upper trough pushes through our area mid-late week, a weak
cold front will move in across the plains. However, as of now the
main energy with this trough will pass by to our north, leaving the
area largely dry and still warm, outside of some isolated to
scattered showers over the Central Mountains. High temperatures will
cool off slightly, dipping into the high-70s to low-80s before
warming up again later in the week. Otherwise the area is expected
to remain dry and breezy, with spotty meteorological critical fire
weather conditions each afternoon for areas adjacent to the
mountains.

Models show some shortwave energy passing by as we move into next
weekend, giving us more unsettled conditions. Chances for showers and
thunderstorms will increase over the higher terrain, where forcing
will be maximized. We can also expected to see sporadically
increased surface winds, more cloud cover, and increased POPs over
the higher terrain and possibly the Palmer Divide late this weekend
into next week.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 331 AM MDT Mon May 12 2025

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next
24 hours. Light, diurnal wind regimes through the morning, with
breezy south to southwest winds expected at the terminals through
the afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MW