960
FXUS65 KPUB 092037
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
237 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and very warm Monday, with increased fire danger at
  many locations.

- At and above seasonal temperatures with a few showers along the
  Continental Divide through the middle of the work week.

- Warm and windy Thursday ahead of another potentially high impact
  storm system developing across the region Friday.

- Unsettled weather for next weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Beautiful early spring conditions across southern Colorado
today, with light winds and temperatures slightly above seasonal
averages at most locations. For tonight, upper ridge over the
area begins to flatten, with lee surface trough deepening across
the plains by early Mon morning. Pattern should lead toward
increasing winds and milder overnight min temps, especially in
wind prone locations along and west of I-25. On Monday, ridge
continues to flatten/lee trough strengthens as upper wave slides
across the nrn plains. Winds aloft increase to 20-30 kts at 7h,
and 40-50 kts at 5h, with deep mixing leading to increasing
surface winds through the day. While extreme winds look unlikely
given moderate mid-level flow, mixing should be sufficient
enough to lead to fairly widespread gusts in the 20-30 kt range
for several hours, especially through the Arkansas Valley from
Salida eastward through Fremont County to Pueblo, then across
the plains north of the Arkansas River. Air mass looks very warm
and dry, with dewpoints in the single digits/teens and highs in
the 60s many mountain valleys/70-nr 80 plains leading to
widespread single digit/lower teens relative humidity by mid-
afternoon. Will convert current Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag
Warning with the afternoon update, though won`t expand it to
include all of the plains yet, as model guidance suggests winds
may come up just short of the 25 kt threshold south of the
lower Arkansas Valley. San Luis Valley could get close to fire
weather highlights as well, though current forecast keeps
humidity just above 15 percent, so will hold off on an issuance
here for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Monday night-Wednesday...No big changes to current forecast
through the middle of the work week, with a weak disturbance
within the westerly flow moving across the southern Rockies,
bringing low end chances (20-30%) of showers across the higher
terrain, mainly along the ContDvd, Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Temperatures to remain generally above seasonal levels, with
patchy critical fire weather conditions possible across portions
of the plains both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

Thursday-Friday...Models continue to be in good agreement of
increasing  southwest flow across the region on Thursday ahead
of deep low pressure system digging across the West and into the
Great Basin. This will bring moderate to heavy snow across the
ContDvd, especially for the Southwest mtns where latest DESI
data indicates 75-95% probabilities of >6 inches of snow Friday
morning and 30-50 percent probabilities of >10 inches. Breezy to
windy conditions ahead of the system also looks to bring
critical fire weather conditions to much of south central and
southeast Colorado Thursday afternoon and into the evening.

Where the system goes as it moves across the Rockies Thursday night
and Friday still remains in question, however latest model data
suggests the system is moving too quickly and develops a mid level
cyclone and its surface reflection too far east to bring the highest
impacts from snow and wind to southeastern Colorado. Time will tell.

At any rate, GEFS ensemble mean remains the quickest and furthest
north and east with a closed low across northwestern Kansas Friday
morning, where as the latest EPS and GEFS data remains further south,
though further north than previous runs, with a closed low across
southwest Kansas Friday morning, with all solutions quickly lifting
the cyclone north and east through the day Friday. Models are not
indicating a lot of cold air associated with this system and will
likely see rain showers and higher elevation snow spreading across
southeast Colorado Thursday night and early Friday, before the system
wraps up further east bringing the strongest winds to the region
later Friday morning and afternoon. Location, timing, and temperature
profiles still need to determined to see where the highest impacts
from snow vs rain and wind will be across region, however latest
DESI data indicates 50-70 percent probabilities of >1 inch of snow
Friday across the Pikes Peak/Palmer Dvd region and the SE Mtns, which
quickly diminishes to 15-30 percent probabilities of >3 inches of
snow. Again, time will tell on how this storm system evolves, and
those with travel plains across southern Colorado later this week
should stay tuned to the latest forecasts on this potentially high
impact storm system.

For Saturday and beyond, model data supports passing disturbances
within modest west to northwest flow, which will keep temperatures
around seasonal levels, with chances of precipitation continuing
across the higher terrain, mainly along the Continental Divide.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1124 AM MDT Sun Mar 9 2025

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs, with diurnal wind cycle
under 12 kts continuing.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MDT Monday for COZ220>222-
227>229-231-234.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...SIMCOE
AVIATION...