406
FXUS65 KPUB 150523
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1023 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather through the period.

- Main concern will be max temps tomorrow given decreasing snowpack.

- Breezy to windy conditions Friday night and Saturday.

- Increasing confidence on precipitation later Sunday and Monday,
  especially south of the Highway 50 Corridor.

- Continued unsettled and likely much cooler through the middle
  of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

Currently...

Regions of the fcst area have warmed up significantly, as temps in
the greater easter Fremont county are in the L70s, with quite a few
60s being measured in region in between the interstate and the
mtns/plains interface. Snow packed area remain quite cool, with 40s
and 50s denoted in these locals while areas along the immediate
KS/CO border were in the L60s. In the San Luis Valley, temps were in
the 20s and a few L40s with 50s in the mid and upper Ark Rvr
valley. Mts were in the 30s.

Rest of Today into Tonight...

Clear skies will prevail. Should see temps warm up a bit more in the
banana belt region but believe they will not get too much higher.
uncertainties are greater over the snow packed areas as warmer air
to the west will advect over these area, but nonetheless, these areas
will be noticeably cooler due to the snowpack.

Tonight, Snow packed areas along with the closed valleys will once
again see the coldest temps with readings in the 20s over the
snowpacked plains and 10s in the SLV. Warmest areas will once again
be in the banana belt region with 30s as lows. Mtns should be in the
10s and 20s.

One thing tonight that I am a bit unsure of is that there could be
some local fog in the snowbelt areas. For now I do not have any fog
in the fcst but the evening shift folks will have to keep an eye out
for some local fog formation.

Tomorrow...
Currently...

Regions of the fcst area have warmed up significantly, as temps in
the greater easter Fremont county are in the L70s, with quite a few
60s being measured in region in between the interstate and the
mtns/plains interface. Snow packed area remain quite cool, with 40s
and 50s denoted in these locals while areas along the immediate
KS/CO border were in the L60s. In the San Luis Valley, temps were in
the 20s and a few L40s with 50s in the mid and upper Ark Rvr
valley. Mts were in the 30s.

Rest of Today into Tonight...

Clear skies will prevail. Should see temps warm up a bit more in the
banana belt region but believe they will not get too much higher.
uncertainties are greater over the snow packed areas as warmer air
to the west will advect over these area, but nonetheless, these areas
will be noticeably cooler due to the snowpack.

Tonight, Snow packed areas along with the closed valleys will once
again see the coldest temps with readings in the 20s over the
snowpacked plains and 10s in the SLV. Warmest areas will once again
be in the banana belt region with 30s as lows. Mtns should be in the
10s and 20s.

One thing tonight that I am a bit unsure of is that there could be
some local fog in the snowbelt areas. For now I do not have any fog
in the fcst but the evening shift folks will have to keep an eye out
for some local fog formation.

Tomorrow...

NBM guidance appeared to be a bit washed out over the region and did
make some adjustments to the max temps across the region, For the
most part, made temps similar to todays max temps but was a bit
cooler in the greater eastern Fremont county region as I do not
believe we will see as much downslope. and have trended the snow
packed areas up a few degrees. Also, given todays heating, we will
continue to decrease the areal coverage of the snow pack, and will
see temps overall warm up on the plains, especially areas of the far
eastern plains. /Hodanish
NBM guidance appeared to be a bit washed out over the region and did
make some adjustments to the max temps across the region, For the
most part, made temps similar to todays max temps but was a bit
cooler in the greater eastern Fremont county region as I do not
believe we will see as much downslope. and have trended the snow
packed areas up a few degrees. Also, given todays heating, we will
continue to decrease the areal coverage of the snow pack, and will
see temps overall warm up on the plains, especially areas of the far
eastern plains. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

Friday night-Saturday night...Latest model data in good agreement
of a upper trough splitting across the Rockies through the day
Saturday, with the main piece of energy translating across the
Northern Rockies and a secondary piece digging across the Great
Basin and into the Desert SW through Saturday night. Moderate to
strong southwest flow ahead of the system brings gusty southwest
winds of 25 to 45 mph over and near the higher Friday night, with
breezy west to southwest winds spreading across the plains through
the day Saturday, before winds become more north to northwest behind
passing and its associated cold front Saturday night. There
will be a quick shot for precipitation, mainly a few mountain
showers, as the broad upper trough translates across the region
late Friday night and early Saturday. Breezy conditions to keep
temperatures up overnight, with cooling aloft through the day to
leading to wide ranging highs on Saturday mainly in the 30s
across the higher terrain, to 50s and 60s across the southeast
Plains.

Sunday-Monday...Latest model data coming into better agreement of the
secondary energy developing a closed low across southern Arizona, which
then lifts out across south central New Mexico and into western Texas on
Monday. There remain some differences on the strength and location of the
ejecting system, however, the main signal keeps the best precipitation
chances south of the Highway 50 Corridor with rain showers possibly
mixing with snow across the far southeast Plains, along with the
potential for some accumulating snowfall across the higher terrain along
the Raton Mesa and southern I-25 Corridor.

Tuesday-Thursday...Model differences expand with the handling of another
lobe of energy digging across the region behind the ejecting west Texas
low. Models and ensemble data have seemingly come into two clusters of
solutions, with the GFS and Canadian data keeping the energy progressive
and further north, where as the EC data continues to dig this lobe of
energy south and closing off another closed low across central New Mexico.
All solutions do indicate much colder air moving into the region, with
the GFS and Canadian camp bringing chances of light snowfall to the area
Tuesday and Wednesday, where as the EC solutions would bring
more snowfall and accumulations to southeast Colorado. Time
will tell, however, current NBM data has latched onto the more
progressive solution at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1022 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at all three terminals.  A
few wind gusts near 20 kts are possible Friday afternoon at KALS.
Increasing mid to high level clouds are expected Friday afternoon into
the evening.  LLWS may be possible at KCOS Friday night into Saturday
morning, but likely outside the 24 hr forecast period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOZLEY