197
FXUS65 KPUB 142337
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
537 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Risk continues for the eastern San Juan and the Upper
  Rio Grande Valley; Flash Flood Watch continues through
  midnight. Minor River flooding expected this evening at Del
  Norte

- Locally heavy rain threat will continue across the San Juans
  through Wednesday, with strong storms possible San Juans and
  San Luis Valley tomorrow afternoon.

- Much colder next week with hard freeze for the plains??

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 127 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Much drier today then this time yesterday, however showers and
thunderstorms were beginning to develop over the San Juans per KALS
doppler radar. A few other showers were noted over the far southeast
plains. Otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies prevailed across the
region. Temps on the plains showed variability early afternoon as
temps ranged to around 60F in Monument to mid 70s over the far
eastern plains. In the valleys temps were more uniform with readings
in the U50s to lower 60s. high mtns were in the 30s and 40s.

Main concern will be the continuing threat for heavy rain in
the San Juans. Overall threat is lower today but any locally
convective showers could cause high water issues over the
saturated ground. For this reason will continue the watch
through midnight tonight. It is possible that the watch may need
to be extended or re-issued later tonight or early tomorrow as
new guidance is still continuing a local threat of continued
heavy convective showers over the San Juans tomorrow, and SPC
has the San Juans and San Luis Valley under marginal severe risk
tomorrow, and WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rain.

For the rest of the region, the best chance of showers will be along
the Sangres tomorrow with isolated showers and thunderstorms on the
plains. Max temps tomorrow should be the warmest of the week, with
mid 70s to mid 80s over the plains and near 70 Valleys. It will
rather breezy to windy tomorrow, especially over the southern
San Luis valley and the far eastern plains. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Thursday, the main concern will be the threat of strong to
marginally severe storms over the far eastern plains during the
afternoon as the deep trough to our west pushes east. Plenty of
deep shear will be in place, but CAPE values may be somewhat
restricted.

A cold front will drop through the plains Thursday night with a
crisp cool morning expected on Friday.  Some of the mountain valleys
will drop into the upper teens to lower 20s, and we may see some
patchy frost if winds decrease quickly enough along the higher
terrain of the I-25 corridor.  Temperatures on Friday will cool
around 5 to 10 degrees from the previous day.

The weekend into early next week looks dry and seasonal with
near normal temperatures. Latest model blend shows the best
chance (20-50%) for frost or a light freeze Sunday morning along
the I-25 corridor and adjacent plains but Sat morning could
also be affected on the Palmer Divide. Warmer temperatures
return for Monday as upper ridging transitions back to southwest
flow ahead of the next approaching western U.S trough/low
pressure system. -KT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 536 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025


KALS: Gusty south-southwest winds will persist into early evening,
with low (around 30%) chances of showers at the terminal as rain
continues over the higher terrain nearby. Beyond that, breezy south
winds and cigs hovering around the high end of MVFR will last
through this forecast period. Currently, showers are expected in the
area Wednesday morning, but chances are too low to include any
precip at the terminal for now. Left as VCSH to account for
scattered showers in the Valley.

KCOS: Gusty south-southeast winds will last for a few hours into
this evening, weakening overnight. Cigs are expected to drop towards
the high end of MVFR overnight. Early Wednesday morning, mainly
between 09 and 15Z, southeast surface winds are expected to bring
patchy stratus into the area, which may impact the terminal for
periods of time. VFR conditions are expected to return by mid-
morning, with gusty south winds kicking in by 18Z.

KPUB: Gusty southerly winds will last for a few more hours,
weakening and becoming more variable overnight. VFR conditions
are expected through at least mid-morning on Wednesday, with
lowering cigs (still VFR) and gusty southeast winds picking back
up by afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for COZ067-068.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO