595
FXUS65 KPUB 281711
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1011 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and mild through Saturday

- Mild and Breezy Sunday, with scattered showers and a few
  rumbles of thunder, especially across the southern tier.

- A stronger storm system later Monday and Tuesday brings
  the potential for strong winds, high fire danger, snow and
  rain to southern Colorado with the track and highest impacts
  still uncertain.

- More unsettled weather towards the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 425 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

Another mild and dry day is expected across southern Colorado today
as the western U.S. upper ridge nudges eastward keeping northwest
flow over CO. A dry cool front backdoors into the eastern plains
today in the wake of energy dropping through the northern plains and
upper mid west. This could bring some minor cooling to the far
eastern areas of the plains, though it appears that mixing will
offset this sufficiently, resulting in temperatures very similar to
yesterday. Readings over the mountains and valleys should warm a few
degrees over yesterday.  This will put high temperatures in the 60s
across the plains, 50s across the valleys and generally 30s and 40s
across the mountains under mostly sunny skies. Northerly winds will
be breezy across the plains but will swing around from the east in
the afternoon and decrease during the late afternoon and evening
hours.

Tonight will be clear and cold again and dropped low temperatures
across the valleys from the model blend means given the continued
dry airmass and favorable set up for good radiational cooling.
-KT

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 425 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

Saturday-Sunday...Latest models indicate upper level ridging
across the region on Saturday, giving way to increasing southerly
flow aloft early Sunday, as a weakening upper low translates
across the Southern Rockies. How far north this system translates
remains in question, with operational data varying run to run,
where as the GFS/EC/Canadian ensemble mean data have the low across
north central New Mexico early Sunday morning, before the system
shears apart across south central Kansas Sunday evening. With that
said, will continue to see dry conditions with well above seasonal
temperatures in the 60s across the Plains on Saturday, with highs
mainly in the 40s and 50s across the higher terrain under clear
skies. Will see increasing mid and upper level moisture Saturday
night across the region, with breezy southerly winds developing
Sunday morning ahead of the system with looks to keep temperatures
mild in the 50s to lower 60s across the plains on Sunday, before
winds become more west to northwest behind the passing system
Sunday afternoon and evening. Models do indicate steep lapse rates
with even a narrow ribbon of cape across the southeast mtns into the
southern I-25 Corridor and the far southeast Plains on Sunday, to
support scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, with the
best pops south of the Highway 50 Corridor. However, sounding data
indicates dry sub cloud layers, with more virga and gusty outflow
winds than measurable rainfall expected. Snow levels remain high
with the passing system, with some light accumulations possible
across the higher terrain of the southern mtns on Sunday.

Monday-Tuesday...The potential for a strong and impactful storm
system remains in the offing for early next week, as another eastern
Pacific system moves across the West Coast on Sunday. While operational
model data continues to vary on the track of this system across
the region through Tuesday night, the ensemble mean track from the
GEFS/EPS/GEPS are in decent agreement of the strong upper low
moving across northern New Mexico and into the western Texas/OK
Panhandle through Tuesday night. This track would bring gusty
southwest winds, warm temperatures and the potential for critical
fire weather conditions to the San Luis and southeast Plains on
Monday, before widespread precipitation spreads across south central
and southeast Colorado Monday night through Tuesday night. While the
track of this system remains uncertain, the more southern track as
depicted by the ensemble data, would bring in cooler air and strong
northerly winds leading to the potential for high impact weather with
snow and blowing snow, especially across the Pikes Peak region and
the southeast mountains and southern I-25 Corridor on Tuesday. With that
said, we will continue to closely monitor the track of this system, which
will determine the temperature profiles, the amount of precipitation,
strong winds and the impacts across southern Colorado early next week.

Beyond Tuesday, models do indicate short wave ridging across the region
through the middle of next week ahead of more eastern Pacific energy
bringing cooler and more unsettled weather across the region for
the end of week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1011 AM MST Fri Feb 28 2025

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours. Winds at KCOS and KPUB will shift northeasterly this evening
as a dry cold front makes its way into our area, before winds shift
more easterly and lighten overnight. While a few gusts are possible,
winds should generally stay around or under 10-12 knots throughout
the period.  If any gusts do occur this afternoon into evening,
especially along the front, an isolated gust to around 20 knots
would be possible.
&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO