346
FXUS65 KPUB 060927
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
327 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Day-After-Day Record breaking heat likely continues for the San
Luis Valley.

- Cooler weather (but still above normal temps) for the plains.

- Dry conditions will persist through the week along with
temperatures well above seasonal averages.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Currently...

Clear skies once again prevail across the region early this morning.
Ambient temps were noted in the 50s to L60s across the plains
with the warmest temps over the far easter plains. The San Luis
Valley ranged in temps in the 50s near the mtns to around 40F
in the center of the valleys. 30s and 40s were noted in the
mtns.

Aloft northwesterly flow was noted at mid levels over the
region with lots of dry air upstream of the region.

Next 24 hours...

Cooler weather is expected over the plains today as a cool front has
brought cooler air to the plains. Expect max temps in the 70s across
the plains, with mid 70s dominating.

For the interior, the heat continues. Alamosa has broken its max
temp record 6 days in a row and it will likely break (or tie it)
once again today. The record for the date is 78F, and we are
forecasting a high of 78 once again this afternoon.

For tonight, Expect 40s over the plains with 30s in the valleys.
Some patchy frost will be possible in the normally cooler areas in
the San Luis Valley. /Hodanish

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Models remain consistent in maintaining a generally quiet pattern
over our area through this week. Confidence is high (>90%) in a
broad upper-level ridge building in across the region. Along with
this and synoptic subsidence, temperatures will remain warm and
conditions will be dry. High temperatures will remain steady through
the work week, with 80s over the plains and 70s over the valleys.
Our only real chance at precipitation prior to this weekend is a low-
end (10-15%) chance for some isolated showers over the mountains
around midweek. Otherwise, conditions should remain somewhat
stagnant until this weekend. Long-range models do hint at an upper-
level trough making its way down into our region later this weekend,
but at this time most of the details still need to be better
resolved in the data for any clarity.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1032 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours. Winds should lighten overnight, turning to diurnal
patterns later in the morning now that the front has passed.
Some gustier winds will be possible at KCOS and KPUB this
afternoon, but nothing more than about 15 knots is expected.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO