498
FXUS65 KPUB 080121
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
621 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy and dry conditions persist the rest of today, with
  breezy conditions lasting into Saturday.

- Cooler on Saturday behind a passing front, with snow picking
  up across the peaks of the mountains. Blowing, moderate
  snowfall expected as we head into the weekend, especially over
  the Central Mountains.

- Below normal temperatures for the plains through the extended period
  with light snow across the central mountains at times.

- Much colder for Tuesday and Wednesday with light snow for both
  the mountains and the plains.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 506 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025

Additional Update: Widespread critical fire weather conditions
are expected to end this evening as humidity values start to
slowly increase over the next few hours. With that said though,
spotty near critical fire weather conditions will remain
possible early to mid evening along the southern I-25 corridor
given persistent gusty southwest winds to around 30 to 50 mph
and humidity values still between 15 to 20 percent.

Strong winds are beginning to lessen across southern El Paso
County and the southern I-25 corridor, and will continue to do
so through the evening, which high-res guidance is in support
of. Given this, the High Wind Warning for these areas has been
allowed to expire. With that said, gusty downsloping winds will
continue across the southern I-25 corridor this evening and into
the early overnight hours, with gusts up to around 50 mph still
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025

Rest of Today through Saturday...

Strong upper jet aloft will continue pushing north and east this
evening. While winds will remain gusty, as we move into the
overnight hours things should slowly subside. As a wave passes by to
our north later tonight, a dry cold front will push onto the plains
from the north and east, bringing another mass of cold air and
increasing cloud cover. Meanwhile, the additional synoptic lift will
initiate some snow showers over the Central Mountains, with several
inches of accumulation, as well as blowing snow, at the peaks, and 1-
2 inches or so over the rest of Lake and parts of Chaffee Counties.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 20s over most of the area,
though southern I-25 will remain in the 30s, our warmest area as it
has been for the last several days.

For Saturday, the post-frontal airmass will leave our high
temperatures a fair bit cooler than today, mainly 40s across the
plains and high-40s to low-50s in the valleys. However, some of the
guidance has been coming in too warm, rather consistently at that,
so some areas with thicker cloud cover may need to be brought down a
few more degrees. This temperature forecast will be another tricky
one, dependent on the extent of the cloud layer and the westward
extent of the cold air towards the mountains.

Meanwhile, snow will continue across parts of the Continental
Divide, with a bit more snow over the Central Mountains, and extra
few inches over the San Juans, and lighter amounts near the peaks of
the northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains, though some areas will see
locally heavier amounts due to enhanced orographic lift. Overall
moisture associated with the system is still in question, but
consistent, moderate snowfall is expected both tonight and into
Saturday evening, so snow amounts at this time are subject to
change. Current forecasted snow totals will be heaviest late tonight
over the Sawatch Range, with some areas seeing as much as 6 inches
or so over the next 24 hours. The peaks of the eastern San Juans may
pick up 3-4 at the peaks, as well as the northern Sangres.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 224 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025

A longwave trough over Canada will shift south down across the
northern tier of the US, bringing cooler air through the upcoming
week. The pattern becomes much more active Monday through Wednesday,
with snow chances returning to the eastern plains.

Saturday night through Sunday...Quick-moving upper disturbance
crosses the Rocky Mt region Sat evening, continuing snow showers
across the higher terrain though the focus remains over the central
mts. New snow amounts there into Sunday morning are forecast to fall
in the 1-3 inch range. This feature will also bring a reinforcing
push of colder llvl air, keeping high temps Sun around 10 degrees
below normal for the eastern plains. The colder air is expected to
be shallow enough to not make it into the high valleys, where max
temps should be around 10 degrees above normal. Plan on highs in the
40s to near 50F for the high valleys, and 30s to around 40F for the
plains.

Monday...Models are indicating Monday as a sort of transition day
with west-southwest flow aloft increasing and pulling energy up into
the Four Corners, while at the same time another upper shortwave
drops south into the Rockies. This shortwave will push another cold
front down into the CO plains Mon evening, but until frontal passage
there will be an increase in westerly llvl flow that should help
boost afternoon highs temporarily. Plan on high temps Mon in the 40s
to around 50F for much of the area, while Trinidad and areas near
the southern border may warm into the mid 50s. As for snow chances,
initially isolated to low-end scattered snow chances are forecast
along the Continental Divide through the morning, then gradually
pushes east and increase in coverage through the afternoon. Mon
evening, with frontal passage and llvl flow feeding westward towards
the mts, scattered to likely precipitation chances will spread to
the eastern plains. Pcpn will start off as a rain/snow mix,
switching over all snow by 10 or 11 PM. At this time, new snow
amounts are expected to be in the 2-4 inch range for the Continental
Divide, 1-3 inches for the peaks of the eastern mts, and less than
an inch along the I-25 Corridor.

Tuesday and Wednesday...These will be the coldest days of the
forecast, with the major impact expected to be the cold and not
necessarily snowfall amounts. Light snow will continue across the
higher terrain both days, with intermittent light snow across the
plains, but snow amounts are not forecast to be significant. Cold
air in place from frontal passage Monday evening will make for a
cold Tue, then another quick-moving shortwave will drop out of the
Pacific NW and cross CO on Wed, bringing another shot of cold and
cloudy weather. The San Luis Valley looks like the choice spot both
days, as the colder air for the most part is expected to stay out of
the Valley. Look for highs Tuesday in the mid 30s to mid 40s for the
high valleys, 20s for the plains, and up into the lower to mid 30s
in the vicinity of Walsenburg and Trinidad. On Wednesday expect
maximums in the 20s for most areas, and 30s for the San Luis Valley.

Thursday...Long range models point to temporary ridging helping to
finally push the cold pool to the east, allowing some warming to
occur. The extended procedure still keeps snow chances over the
higher terrain through the day and night, but this may be a little
heavy-handed. Left the output for now, but pops will likely need to
be decreased and fine-tuned. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 428 PM MST Fri Feb 7 2025

KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Gusty southwest
winds near 25 to 30 kts will continue through this evening
weakening overnight. Winds will increase again Saturday by
midday, with southwesterly gusts near 30 kts.

KCOS and KPUB...breezy southwest to westerly winds will prevail
through this evening. A cold front will arrive around 09-10z
switching winds northerly with a few wind gusts near 25 kts.
Winds will swing southeasterly by mid morning and prevail
through the afternoon. CIGS near 2 kft to 5 kft are likely
behind the cold front.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SIMCOE
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MOZLEY