738
FXUS65 KPUB 010004
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
604 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and this
  evening, a few of which could be severe. Main risks include:
  flash flooding, 1 to 2 inch hail, damaging winds gusting up
  to 60 mph, and lightning.

- Thunderstorms decrease begin to decrease in coverage, and
  especially in intensity, for our Monday.

- Drier conditions, especially across south central Colorado,
  leading to increasing fire danger through the 4th of July
  Holiday Week and Weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Currently..

Temperatures have climbed into the 70s and 80s across the plains,
with dewpoints holding steady in the 50s and 60s for most locations.
Morning stratus lingered over many areas, but finally burned off
around noon, giving way to mostly sunny skies for a majority of the
plains. This has allowed warm and moist conditions for the area.
Cumulus is developing, which can be seen on satellite imagery, and a
few showers and weak storms are already present on radar as of 2pm
as well, mainly across the La Garitas and the southern I-25
corridor. So far, not much lighting to speak of for our area, but
we`re seeing strong southeasterly low-level flow across our plains.
SPC mesoanalysis is painting highest instability across our southern
plains early this afternoon, with the best shear over our far
northeastern plains, but those two areas have the potential to
overlap more later on this evening.

Rest of Today and Tonight..

While the likelihood of widespread severe development is looking low
for today, we are very moist. For the most part, our most favorable
shear and most favorable instability do not seem to overlap during
peak heating. Later this evening, there is a potential for some
outflow interaction to aid in the development of some stronger
storms, especially across the Arkansas River Valley, where SPC
mesoanalysis depicts higher shear values, which could help to keep
storms more organized. If stronger storms are able to develop and
become severe, the main risks with storms on our plains today will
be excessive rainfall and flash flooding, 1 to 2 inch hail, damaging
winds with gusts to 60 mph, and lightning. Excessive rainfall will
also be possible with storms over the mountains today, especially
for our flood prone areas, to include burn scars, and the Chalk
Cliffs.

Tomorrow...

For Monday, the upper high will be situated to our southeast,
allowing for southwest flow aloft over Colorado. Moisture will be
much less for Monday than what we`ve seen through this weekend,
which will be most evident in our thunderstorm intensity and our
decreased humidity values. We`ll go from around 35-50% humidity
ranges on our plains today to around 25-32% humidity ranges on our
plains tomorrow. While another round of showers and thunderstorms
can be expected with the passage of more shortwave energy riding
through the ridge tomorrow, storm intensity is expected to decrease,
especially over our plains. Storm coverage is also expected to
decrease somewhat as well, mainly over our plains. We will see less
of a risk for excessive rainfall over the plains, as storms will
become a bit higher based as drier air begins to make its way into
the the lower levels of the atmosphere. This will, in turn, increase
the risk for outflow winds gusting up to 45mph across our plains for
tomorrow. Outside of thunderstorm chances, expect daytime highs to
to be a few degrees warmer than normal, with mid to upper 90s and a
few triple digits across the plains, 70s and low 80s for mountain
valleys, and 60s for higher terrain locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

A fairly active west to northwest flow pattern sets up across the
Rockies throughout the upcoming work week, with several embedded
waves progged to translate through the stronger flow across the
Northern Tier sending occasional fronts across Eastern Colorado.
These fronts, on Tuesday night into Wednesday and again late
Thursday night into Friday morning, will bring increased low
level moisture and chances of precipitation to Eastern Colorado
through the work week, while much drier air aloft remains
progged to work into the Central Rockies, as the westerly flow
pushes subtropical moisture south and east of the region. With
that said, there will be enough residual moisture to keep
isolated to scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms in place
across the area throughout the work week, with the best
coverage expected across the eastern mountains and plains on
Wednesday and again on Friday, behind the aforementioned
passing fronts. With the drier air aloft working into the
region, and moderate westerly flow aloft at times, there will be
increasing fire danger through out the week, especially on
Thursday (July 4th), with the potential for critical fire
weather conditions across portions of south central and
southeast Colorado. Temperatures around seasonal levels expected
through out the work week, save for slightly cooler
temperatures across eastern Colorado on Wednesday and possibly
well below seasonal in the mid 70s to mid 80s on Friday,
depending on how deep the upslope flow is behind Thursday
night`s front.

For Saturday and into early next week, latest model guidance indicates
an anomalously strong northwest flow pattern across the
Rockies, with a broad upper trough in place across the Upper
Great Lakes into the Upper Midwest as upper level ridging builds
across the West Coast. Ensemble data also indicates PWATs well
below normal within the northwest flow aloft, leading to
continued drier conditions and increased fire danger areawide.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 601 PM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all TAF sites (KALS,
KCOS, and KPUB) throughout the forecast period. Winds will be
primarily influenced by synoptic effects, and will be rather strong
and gusty out of the NNW at KCOS due to outflow from storms to the
north, as winds weaken towards morning, they will become more
influenced by diurnal effects. There will also be a windshift at
KPUB around 01Z (or possibly sooner) due to that same outflow. There
is low confidence of low CIGs developing during the early morning
hours at KCOS. There is also very low confidence of VCSH/SHRA and
possible VCTS/-TSRA at all stations through the early this evening
and towards the end of the forecast period tomorrow afternoon,
especially at KALS after 19Z. If SHRA/TSRA does occur, it could
temporarily reduce CIGs and VIS to MVFR/IFR criteria. It could also
result in periodic windshifts and increased wind speeds for all
terminals. -Stewey

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...STEWARD