841
FXUS65 KPUB 042309
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
409 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A fair weather pattern with dry conditions and at to above
  seasonal temperatures expected into the early weekend.

- Much cooler early next week, with a quick shot of snow late
  Sunday into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicates
generally weak northerly flow aloft across the region, with
high amplitude ridging in place across the Great Basin and
Intermountain West, as a deep upper trough digs across the Upper
Great Lakes and Upper Midwest. Water vapor imagery is also
indicating a weak circulation across the Desert Southwest at
this time. GOES imagery indicates clear skies across the Rockies
with temperatures in the 50s across southeast Colorado and mainly
in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain as of 2 pm.

Tonight-Thursday...Not much change in the upper level pattern
for tomorrow, with generally weak northerly flow continuing
across the Rockies, with the Intermountain West ridge starting
to build eastward as the Upper Midwest trough also marches east.
Latest model data, especially higher res models, do indicate
another weak backdoor front, associated with the passing Upper
Midwest system, moving across the southeast Plains late tonight,
with increasing low level moisture and the potential for some
early morning fog along and north of the Highway 50 Corridor.

Otherwise, dry conditions are expected across the area with
overnight lows mainly in the 20s across the plains, and in the
teens and 20s over and near the higher terrain, save for low 30s
possible in the banana belt west of the I-25 Corridor. Temperatures
tomorrow over and near the higher terrain look to be similar to
today`s readings, however, the southeast plains could be problematic
depending on the westward extent of a shallow cool airmass associated
with the overnight backdoor front. With that said, I kept the warmest
readings in the mid to upper 50s across the southern I-25 Corridor
with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the lower Arkansas
River Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

Thursday night-Saturday...Latest models continue to indicate
upper level ridging building into the Northern and Central Rockies
through Saturday, with the noted weak circulation across the Desert
Southwest lifting out across the Southern Rockies and into the
Southern High Plains. Pattern suggests dry weather and generally
weak winds with temperatures at above seasonal levels. The warmest
day looks to on Saturday, as highs warm into the 60s across
the plains, and mainly 40s and 50s across the higher terrain, save
for in the 20s and 30s at the peaks.

Sunday-Wednesday...Latest operational models and ensemble data are
coming into better agreement of quick shot of precipitation later
Sunday and Monday, along with much colder temperatures into early
next week, as a progressive upper trough translates across the
Northern Tier. There are some hints of the system splitting
across the Rockies, however, models to indicate the best chances
of generally light snowfall across the ContDvd developing Sunday
evening, with snow spreading south and east across the High
Mountain Valleys through the Eastern Mtns and immediate adjacent
plains Sunday night and Monday, before diminishing north to
south late Monday afternoon and evening. As of now, looks like
light to moderate accumulations will be possible, especially
across the southeast mtns. Along with the potential for snow,
this system will usher in much colder temperatures, with highs
in the 50s and 60s across the eastern Colorado on Sunday, cooling
into the 30s Monday and Tuesday. Cool west to northwest flow
continues into the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 407 PM MST Wed Dec 4 2024

VFR conditions at all three terminals (KALS, KCOS, KPUB) through
the next 24 hours. Winds at KALS will be light and variable
through the period. Fog will be possible overnight across the
lower Arkansas River Valley, but looks to remain east of KPUB.
Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOZLEY