286
FXUS65 KPUB 191138
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
438 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerously cold wind chills persist throughout the day today,
  with even colder conditions arriving tonight.

- Another round of light, but wind driven snow moves through
  tonight into tomorrow morning for our plains along with
  portions of the high country.

- Dangerously cold wind chills continue into Tuesday morning
  with light snow continuing through Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

Currently..

We are very cold, and very dry, across the forecast area early this
morning. Temperatures are in the single digits and teens below zero,
and dewpoints are in the upper teens to twenties below zero. The one
exception is southern El Paso County, where southeasterly winds and
upslope has managed to develop, shooting temperatures up to +1F, and
developing light snow and low ceilings. Most other areas are clear
and cold. Winds are light, but wind chills are still coming in
around -10 to -20 on our plains. For the reason, the Cold Weather
Advisory was expanded over portions of our eastern plains late last
night, valid into the morning hours of our Sunday. Over the high
country, wind chills have fallen into the twenties and thirties
below zero. Monarch Pass is reporting a wind chill of -48F as of 2
AM.

Today..

Temperatures and wind chills look to recover slightly better today
than yesterday, at least across the lower elevations, due to a bit
of sunshine and southeasterly winds. Highs look to climb into the
twenties above zero for our mountain valleys and for the majority of
our plains, with teens for El Paso County. Wind chills look to
remain a few degrees above zero through much of the day today,
climbing into the low teens for a few hours during peak heating.
Cold Weather Advisories continue throughout the entire day for the
San Luis Valley, The Wet Mountain Valley, The Upper Arkansas River
Valley, and northern El Paso County, where wind chills will remain
in the teens below zero through the majority of the day.

A second wave of Arctic Air arrives later this evening, spreading
snow chances back into the forecast area, along with even colder
temperatures. Snow chances to look to push into the central
mountains this afternoon, out ahead of the arrival of the second
wave. Though snowfall rates will be light, gusty winds will lead to
wind driven snow and potential travel impacts, especially over
mountain passes today and into this evening. Daytime snow
accumulations look to be very light.

Tonight..

The second cold push will bring brisk north winds, falling
temperatures, and snow chances to our plains from late evening
onwards. High res model guidance brings light/dry snow into the
Palmer Divide by around 9 PM or so tonight, spreading southward into
the Highway 50 corridor by midnight. Light snow continues through
the overnight hours and into tomorrow morning, with minimal impacts
from snowfall expected.

The arrival of the second cold push will bring more impactful
weather to the area in the form of dangerously cold temperatures and
wind chills. Our Cold Weather Advisory expands into southern El
Paso, Pueblo, Crowley, Kiowa, and eastern Fremont counties from 11pm
onwards tonight, when wind chills are expected to drop to around 20F
below zero. Temperatures will be near and below zero across the
plains, with teens below zero for mountain valleys, and teens and
twenties below zero for higher terrain locations. Wind chills will
range from twenties below zero along and north of Highway 50,
through mountain valleys, and across our higher terrain, to low
teens and single digits below zero for our southeastern plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

Secondary arctic surge pushes through southern CO Monday
morning, as the next wave in northerly flow drops southward
across the region. Light wind driven snow will continue to
expand southward across the southeast mountains and plains through
the morning with some clearing taking place through the
afternoon as drier air quickly works its way in. Low level flow
will shift from the east to southeast in the afternoon and
become light which will keep some shallow forced light snow
showers going into the early evening hours along the east slopes
of the southeast mountains and I-25 corridor. There is some
shallow instability that could be tapped as well, but moisture
looks more limited with this second wave and overall snow totals
stay around an inch or two. Main story will be the bitter cold
and dangerous wind chills. Temperatures will struggle to warm
into the single digits and teens for most areas, and highs
across the higher peaks will stay in the negative single digits
and negative teens through the day. This will result in wind
chills as cold as 24 below zero across the lower elevations in
the morning and as cold as 34 below zero across the higher
terrain. Wind chill advisories will stay up through the day
across the valleys and northern portions of the plains. Although
a minor rebound above advisory criteria will occur during the
afternoon, wind chills will remain below zero through the
afternoon, then drop into more dangerous values during the
overnight hours. Kept temperatures down near the 25th percentile
of the NBM members which isn`t too far off from the colder
guidance values.

With clearing taking place Monday night, this will set the stage
for dangerous cold and wind chills across all of southern CO.
Have expanded Extreme Cold Watches to cover all of the area as
higher mountains could drop down to -60 at times, and lower
elevations could drop -30 degrees by morning. Lee trough
develops towards morning and the lower eastern slopes of the
southeast mountains could see a slight rebound in temperatures
towards dawn, but there is still a window for very cold
temperatures during the first half of the night and wind chills
will still be down to -25 to -30 for some of our more populated
mountain communities once the winds kick in. This is sufficient
to lean towards Extreme Cold highlights. Some of our mountain
valleys could drop close to -30 degree ambient temperatures
(without wind chill) towards morning!

Lee troughing on Tuesday will bring the start of a warm up,
though kept temperatures on the colder side for the mountain
valleys and across portions of the southeast plains where
southerly or westerly winds won`t be as strong. All areas will
be cold again Tuesday night but not the bitter cold of the
previous couple days, with lows in the single digits and teens.
Mountain valleys (San Luis, Wet Mountain Valley, and the Upper
Rio Grande) will drop into the negative single digits and teens
and could be flirting with Cold Weather Advisory criteria again
Tue morning.

A slow warm up continues through late week with another minor
drop in temperatures behind a cold front on Wednesday. Models
have trended weaker and farther east with this system so expect only
spotty isolated snow showers at best. The next stronger system
may come in for next weekend bringing the potential for more
snow and cold to the region, though temperatures do not look as
significantly cold as the previous one.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 437 AM MST Sun Jan 19 2025

For KCOS..Southeasterly winds and upslope overnight have led to MVFR
conditions in light snow and low ceilings that are expected through
around 15Z this morning, with clearing through most of the day.
Cloud cover looks to linger throughout the period, with another
round of MVFR to IFR conditions likely after 06Z with another round
of snow coming in tonight.

For KPUB..MVFR ceilings are possible early this morning, with
improvement through much of the daytime hours. Cloud cover looks to
linger throughout the period, with another round of MVFR to IFR
conditions likely after 10Z with another round of snow coming in
late tonight into tomorrow morning.

At KALS..VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, with
mid and upper-level cloud cover and mainly westerly to northwesterly
winds. Snow chances move in late in the period and the beginning of
next period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for COZ058-
060.
Extreme Cold Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday
morning for COZ058>089-093>099.
Cold Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Monday for COZ062-069>071-
077-078-084.
Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST
Monday for COZ083-085-086-089-095-096.
Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for COZ088-
089-093>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...EHR