293
FXUS65 KPUB 101001
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
401 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong to severe storms possible once again across the eastern
  plains this afternoon and evening.

- Drier and warmer for much of the upcoming week, though
  isolated afternoon thunderstorms will remain possible every
  day, mainly over the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Currently...Convection is starting to wind down across the far
eastern plains as of 130 AM, after a very busy night. Multiple
rounds of hail and moderate to heavy rain were reported roughly
along and north of Highway 50, from Canon City east to the Kansas
state line. Temps as of 2 AM have cooled into the 50s and 60s for
most locations. Some sporadic showers will likely linger
through the early morning hours across El Paso and Pueblo
counties, and further east.

Today and tonight...Longwave upper trough axis crosses the state
today, with another upper disturbance playing as the trigger for
more late afternoon and evening convection across the eastern
plains. There is plenty of llvl moisture still in place across the
plains, with models indicating 2000+ j/kg of CAPE, and bulk shear
through the morning is an impressive 40-45 kts, though it drops off
dramatically by 00z. The one difference today, though, is that there
will likely be a good amount of cloud cover this morning that will
hinder heating at least initially. By the time things burn off and
the llvl moisture starts to cook, the best shear may be already
past. Therefore, as previously mentioned, all the ingredients are in
place for strong to severe storms once again today, and will most
likely be a later show again, but with less shear more of a rain
threat exists and perhaps not as large of a big hail threat compared
to the previous day. SPC has painted a Slight area for severe
weather all the way back to the eastern mts, and WPC has a Marginal
area for excessive rainfall across the eastern plains, and a Slight
area over the Palmer Divide. Models are hinting at convection
pushing off the higher terrain between 3 and 4 PM, consolidating as
a line and strengthening along the I-25 Corridor around 6 PM, then
pushing east across the plains through the evening.

Plan on a much cooler day today with highs in the mid 70s to lower
80s for most locations. Overnight lows are forecast to cool into the
40s for the high valleys, and 50s across the plains. Moore

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Slow drying trend begins Monday, as upper trough axis sinks
south of Colorado, and deeper moisture/instability drop south
into NM/nrn TX. Still enough moisture for afternoon convection
again on Mon, with best coverage of storms over the srn Sangres
and along the srn I-25 corridor, where forcing is strongest.
Mainly isolated activity farther north and west, and cut back
blended model pops a bit here, though may need to go even drier
if trends continue. Max temps Mon will remain cool, as pocket of
cooler air rotates south through the region, with highs in the
70s/80s at most locations.

From Tuesday into the end of the week, upper ridge builds over
the swrn U.S. and srn Rockies, bringing back summertime heat and
keeping deeper moisture suppressed south of the region until at
least Fri. Still enough recycled moisture and weak instability
for a daily dose of afternoon convection, mainly over the
mountains, though storm coverage will be rather sparse, and
rainfall amounts light. Upper ridge then shifts east from Fri
through next weekend, allowing a renewed tap of moisture to push
into srn CO. As a result, expect storm coverage and strength to
gradually ramp up Fri/Sat, especially back toward the
Continental Divide, where chances for much needed rainfall will
increase.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms expected across the
eastern plains this afternoon and evening, affecting KCOS and KPUB
terminals.

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions anticipated through 20z. SCT to BKN AC
cloud deck 050-100 likely through the morning, with VCSH potential.
Starting at around 20z introduce PROB30 for variable gusts to 40 kts
and -TSRA. Improving conditions after 03z.

KALS: VFR conditions over the next 24 hrs, with west winds
increasing and getting gusty to 24 kts between 21z-03z. VCTS may
need to be mentioned in same time frame with storms pushing in from
the east.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MOORE