Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
622 FNUS55 KPSR 201021 FWFPSR Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Southwest and South-Central Arizona and Southeast California National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 321 AM MST Wed Aug 20 2025 .DISCUSSION... Temperatures warm well above normal today and tomorrow as highs approach record levels and lows approach record warm levels. Relative humidity will bottom out around 15-25% with poor overnight recovery across the western districts and fair overnight recovery across the eastern districts. Thunderstorm activity will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of E and SE AZ today, with less than a 20% across the lower deserts of south-central AZ. Thunderstorm chances increase to 20-30% across the south-central AZ lower deserts tomorrow and remain around 30-50% across the higher terrain. Lightning and gusty, erratic outflow winds will be the primary concerns with any thunderstorms. Chances for seeing outflow wind gusts in excess of 35 mph are upwards of 50-70% today for southern Gila, eastern Maricopa, and NW Pinal Counties. Chances for wind gusts, over the same areas as mentioned previously, in excess of 35 mph tomorrow remain around 50-70%, with a 10% chance for wind gusts in excess of 58 mph. Winds will otherwise favor diurnal upslope/downvalley patterns with occasional afternoon gusts in the 15-20 mph range. ...Thunderstorms imply gusty winds... Note...Additional Fire Weather Forecast information can be found in the Area Forecast Discussion. See product PHXAFDPSR. AZZ132-202230- West Central Deserts/Northwest Maricopa County/Greater Phoenix Area/Southwest Deserts/Southwest Maricopa County/ Northwest and North-Central Pinal County- Phoenix BLM/YUM BLM/CAZ-CRZ- 321 AM MST Wed Aug 20 2025 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. * Max Temperature.................106-112. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees warmer. * Min Humidity....................11-17 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Northeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming west in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 5 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............3 percent. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......10100 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......Southwest 4 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Good. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. * Min Temperature.................83-93. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................28-45 pct. * 24 hr trend..................8 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming east after midnight. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............East 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................10 percent in the evening becoming 0 percent after midnight. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............13 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................107-113. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................15-19 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..East 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming south in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................0 percent in the morning becoming 10 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............3 percent. * Mixing Height for Phoenix.......6500 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Phoenix......East 6 knots. * Dispersion for Phoenix..........Fair. .EXTENDED... .FRIDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 82-92. Highs 106-112. South winds 5 to 10 mph. .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 82-92. Highs 104-110. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 82-92. Highs 104-110. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. .MONDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 78-88. Highs 100-106. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 75-85. Highs 94-101. $$ AZZ131-CAZ231-202230- Yuma/Martinez Lake and Vicinity/Lower Colorado River Valley AZ- Lower Colorado River Valley CA- 321 AM MST Wed Aug 20 2025 /321 AM PDT Wed Aug 20 2025/ .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. * Max Temperature.................108-113. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees warmer. * Min Humidity....................11-15 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little RH change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming southwest in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............0 percent. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........9900 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........South 6 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Good. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................83-88. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees warmer. * Max Humidity....................27-41 pct. * 24 hr trend..................6 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming southeast after midnight. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 10 to 20 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............0 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Sunny. * Max Temperature.................110-115. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................14-18 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..East 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming southwest in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............0 percent. * Mixing Height for Yuma..........9600 ft AGL. * Transport Wind for Yuma.........South 6 knots. * Dispersion for Yuma.............Good. .EXTENDED... .FRIDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 84-89. Highs 109-114. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 83-88. Highs 106-111. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 82-88. Highs 105-110. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 79-87. Highs 102-107. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 78-84. Highs 98-103. $$ AZZ133-202230- Southern Gila County/Tonto National Forest Foothills- Southern Tonto NF/West San Carlos BIA/South Portion Ft Apache BIA/ CAZ- 321 AM MST Wed Aug 20 2025 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................90-107. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................17-30 pct. * 24 hr trend..................6 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southeast 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................0 percent in the morning becoming 30 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................10 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............34 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the evening. Areas of smoke after midnight. * Min Temperature.................66-84. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Max Humidity....................43-63 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..East 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................20 percent in the evening becoming 0 percent after midnight. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............24 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Partly sunny. Areas of smoke in the morning. haze . Chance of showers and thunderstorms . * Max Temperature.................91-108. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................18-28 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southeast 5 to 15 mph. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable. * Chance of Precip................30 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................10 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............32 percent. .EXTENDED... .FRIDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 66-85. Highs 91-107. East winds 5 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 66-84. Highs 91-106. Northeast winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 65-84. Highs 90-105. Northeast winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 63-82. Highs 88-102. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 62-80. Highs 83-97. $$ CAZ232-202230- Imperial County And Eastern Riverside County- 321 AM PDT Wed Aug 20 2025 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. * Max Temperature.................103-113. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................9-14 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming south in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................84-89. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees warmer. * Max Humidity....................21-40 pct. * 24 hr trend..................6 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming northwest after midnight. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable in the evening becoming southeast 10 to 20 mph after midnight. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............0 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. * Max Temperature.................106-115. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................12-17 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..East 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming south in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Southeast 10 to 15 mph. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............0 percent. .EXTENDED... .FRIDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 85-92. Highs 105-114. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 84-91. Highs 102-111. South winds 5 to 10 mph. .SUNDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 82-90. Highs 100-110. South winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 79-88. Highs 98-107. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy with slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 77-85. Highs 94-103. $$ CAZ230-202230- Joshua Tree National Park- 321 AM PDT Wed Aug 20 2025 .TODAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. * Max Temperature.................93-107. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................9-13 pct. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming south in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............0 percent. .TONIGHT... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly clear. * Min Temperature.................75-85. * 24 hr trend..................3 degrees warmer. * Max Humidity....................21-26 pct. * 24 hr trend..................3 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..Southwest 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming northwest after midnight. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............Light and variable in the evening becoming southeast 10 to 20 mph after midnight. * Chance of Precip................0 percent. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............0 percent. .THURSDAY... * Sky/weather.....................Mostly sunny. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. * Max Temperature.................95-108. * 24 hr trend..................Little change. * Min Humidity....................13-17 pct. * 24 hr trend..................4 pct wetter. * Winds - 20 foot...Slope/Valley..North 5 to 10 mph in the morning becoming south in the afternoon. * Winds...10000 FT MSL............South 5 to 15 mph in the morning becoming light and variable in the afternoon. * Chance of Precip................0 percent in the morning becoming 10 percent in the afternoon. * CWR (>= 0.10 IN)................0 percent. * Chance of Thunder...............10 percent. .EXTENDED... .FRIDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 75-87. Highs 95-109. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .SATURDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 75-87. Highs 92-106. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .SUNDAY...Showers likely and slight chance of thunderstorms. Lows 73-85. Highs 90-104. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph. .MONDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 69-84. Highs 88-102. .TUESDAY...Partly cloudy with chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows 67-80. Highs 85-98. $$ .8 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK...Wednesday August 27th through Friday August 29th: Near normal temperatures and above median precipitation.