960
FXUS65 KPSR 242300
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
400 PM MST Mon Nov 24 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and tranquil weather conditions are expected through the
  workweek with temperatures gradually warming to slightly above
  normal by the end of the week.

- Another weather system will bring much cooler temperatures and
  rain chances to the region late this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Latest satellite wv imagery and 500 mb streamline analysis reveals
a tandem of upper-lvl troughs progressing through the Pacific NW
and the Central Plains. To our west, a broad ridge of high
pressure has become established. Our forecast region is under a
dry NW flow regime which has resulted in clear skies and warming
temperatures across the lower deserts. Current thermometer
readings are mainly in the mid to upper 60s across southcentral AZ
and a few locations approaching the lower 70s along and west of
the Colorado River Valley. Skies should remain generally clear
through the rest of this evening and overnight with temperatures
bottoming out in the mid 40s to low 50s across much of the
forecast area. Although drier air is filtering into the region,
there is still residual sfc moisture from rainfall over the past
few days as indicated by dewpoints currently sitting in the low
50s. These higher dewpoints in combination with light winds and
clear skies will be the catalyst for another round of light patchy
fog on Tuesday morning. Any fog that develops will be short lived
and dissipate around 9-10 AM MST.

On Tuesday, 500 mb heights will rise to around 580-582 dam in
response to high pressure building over the California coastline.
These increasing heights aloft will result in afternoon high
temperatures rising into the the low to mid 70s across the lower
deserts and in the mid 60s to low 70s across the higher terrain
areas. In addition to warming temperatures increasing subsidence
will promote dry and tranquil weather conditions across the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models continue to be in good agreement that dry and tranquil
weather conditions will continue across the region through at least
the end of the workweek. Heights aloft will continue to rise as the
aforementioned high pressure system continues to build and
eventually moves and over our region during the middle of the week.
Temperatures will peak during the middle of the week, when the
high pressure is overhead. During this timeframe afternoon high
temperatures will be 3-6 degrees above normal, with forecasted
highs in the mid to upper 70s across the lower deserts and in the
upper 60s to low 70s across the higher terrain. On Friday, a dry
shortwave trough, out ahead of the next weather system, looks to
move through the region cooling us off a couple degrees (but still
near to slightly above normal). Morning low temperatures during
the latter half of the workweek will be in the 40s across much of
the CWA but more urban areas will see lows in the low to mid 50s.

By this weekend, global ensemble members all show a deep trough
traversing the region by some point either during the weekend or
early next week, but they differ on the exact timing. They are in
good agreement that the trough will be moving down into our region
from the Pacific NW (inland trajectory) and not move down along the
eastern Pacific Ocean and then move inland like the last low
pressure system did. With this trough taking an inland trajectory
the system won`t be bringing a lot of moisture to the region. PWATs
currently look to only rise to a 0.5-0.7" range (the ECMWF and
Canadian Ensemble have PWATs in a 0.5-0.7" range, but the GEFS has
PWATs staying below 0.6"). This increase in moisture (in
combination with forcing from the trough and terrain itself)
would likely support showers across the higher elevations to the
north and east of the Phoenix Metro. Showers across the lower
deserts will likely be harder to come by with this amount of
moisture and would need more help than that of the higher terrain
areas. Nevertheless, another weather system will be moving through
the region either late this weekend or early next week and would
support showers across at least portions of the CWA along with
cooling temperatures. With this weather system temperatures look
to cool back off below normal. Stay tuned for future updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2300Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period.
Winds will be light with extended periods of VRB to calm
conditions. VCFG or BCFG may observed early Tuesday morning prior
to sunrise, but confidence regarding direct impacts at any of the
terminals is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Besides
a FEW high terrain CU this evening, skies will be mostly clear.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The main aviation concern will be the potential for FG development
Tuesday morning at both sites. However, confidence regarding
direct impacts is much lower compared to that for operational
impacts Monday morning. Therefore, only VCFG has been included in
the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, winds will be light with
extended periods of VRB to calm conditions through Tuesday morning
before a N/NW component is established late in the forecast
window.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and tranquil weather conditions will continue through the
workweek with temperatures gradually warming to slightly above
average. Another night of very good to excellent recovery is
anticipated with RH values ranging from 80-100%. As high pressure
builds over the region by the middle of the week, MinRHs will fall
to around 25-35% by Wednesday and Thursday. Despite the drier
afternoons, overnight recoveries will still be in a 60-80% range
over the next several nights. Winds will remain light and follow
normal diurnal patterns with only marginal afternoon gusts into the
teens to lower 20s across the high terrain.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Salerno
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Salerno