


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Portland, OR
Issued by NWS Portland, OR
637 FXUS66 KPQR 130439 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 939 PM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Updated aviation discussion and PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. .SYNOPSIS...A cool and unsettled pattern continues across the Pacific Northwest through Monday as a broad upper-level trough move eastward over the region. Rain, mountain snow, and below- normal temperatures will persist into early next week. A gradual transition toward warmer and drier weather begins midweek as a ridge builds overhead, though model guidance diverges toward the end of the week regarding another potential low near the coast. && .DISCUSSION...Tonight through Saturday...Afternoon satellite imagery shows a broad, upper level trough axis continuing to run more or less parallel to the coast as the base of the trough continues to slowly plunge southward towards the OR/CA border. This setup will maintain cool and showery conditions across the area through Monday. Radar currently shows scattered showers continuing to shift eastward, with occasional heavier bursts along the Cascade foothills. As the base of this trough moves southward, colder 850 mb temperatures will also be introduced to the Pac NW. This will result in snow levels falling towards 4000-5000 ft and as a result, will bring accumulating snow across the Cascades. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for elevations above 4000 ft through Monday morning, where there is a 50-80% probability of 2 to 7 inches of wet snow for the Cascade passes. Highway 26 near Government Camp carries a similar probability for a trace to 3 inches of wet snow. At elevations above 5000 ft, snow totals of 5 to 17 inches are likely, with a 10-30% chance of exceeding 15 inches. Overall, there remains a 50% chance of at least 12 inches of snow, primarily for locations north of The Three Sisters and this scenario could result in vehicles becoming stranded along unmaintained roads. Monday, the aforementioned trough/low is expected to start making an easterly trek and as such will result in clearing skies and cooler, overnight temperatures. Focusing on the Upper Hood River Valley, receding cloud cover Monday night will allow for strong radiational cooling. Probabilities for temperatures at or below 32 degrees range between 50-90%. Probabilities for temperatures of 28 degrees or colder range between 5-35%. These probabilities are highest in the Parkdale area and lowest in Odell. Therefore, will maintain the current Freeze Watch from 12 AM to 9 AM Tuesday for the Upper Hood River Valley, where sensitive vegetation and unprotected plumbing could be affected. Tuesday through Thursday, ensemble and deterministic models continue to favor a broad ridge over the Pac NW. This will bring a warming and drying trend, with daytime highs into the mid to upper 60s across the lowlands, coast and Coastal Range. As for the Cascades, expect daytime highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Thursday into the start of next weekend, forecast confidence remains low as model solutions diverge. However, models are starting to trend towards a cooler and wetter solution as models bring a shortwave trough into the region, which could push inland between Thursday and Friday. This scenario would result in increasing cloud cover and a return of light rain. /42~12 && .AVIATION...At 0430z Monday, scattered rain showers continued over northwest Oregon and southwest Washington, with mainly VFR cigs and visibilities in place. Expect showers to continue through Monday morning, before decreasing in coverage Monday afternoon. Expect cigs to begin fluctuate between VFR/MVFR thresholds between 06-15z Monday, with VFR cigs occurring more often than MVFR cigs. Cigs should lower to MVFR mainly with passing showers. The probability for cigs below 3000 ft ranges between 30-50% for all inland TAF sites through 15z Monday, and 20-30% for coastal TAF sites. Clouds will begin to clear out Monday afternoon as offshore flow develops, bringing breezy east to northeast winds with gusts up to 20-25 kt for all TAF sites. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect cigs to fluctuate between MVFR/VFR thresholds between 06-15z Monday, with VFR cigs occurring more often than MVFR cigs. MVFR cigs are most likely to occur with passing rain showers. There is a 30-50% chance for cigs below 3000 ft at any time between 06-15z Monday. VFR conditions expected after 18z Monday as offshore flow develops and brings clearing skies and breezy east winds with gusts up to 20-25 kt. -23 && .MARINE...A shortwave trough continues to pass over the region with the axis of the trough east of the marine zones. Rain has transitioned to scattered showers across the waters. Winds remain westerly and have decreased to around 10 kt and gusts to around 15 kt. Wave heights peaked earlier this morning around 12-14 ft and have slowly dropped back to between 8-10 ft at 10-11 seconds. A weak area of low pressure developing over the Olympic peninsula is expected to drop southward across the waters tonight into early Monday. This will usher in a reinforcing shot of gusty north to northeasterly winds during this period. Seas will remain elevated as a result. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to persist through 5 pm Monday. An offshore pressure gradient will maintain northeasterly winds into Tuesday, shifting back to onshore flow late Tuesday. Seas will drop to 5-6 ft at 8-9 seconds late Monday. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding the weather pattern next weekend, with an 80% chance that significant wave heights will climb and end up somewhere between 10 and 19 ft by next Saturday/Sunday. /19/12 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for ORZ121. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for ORZ126>128. WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for WAZ211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland