727
AXPQ20 PGUM 140116
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1116 AM ChST Tue Oct 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A loosely organized tropical disturbance known as JTWC`s Invest 96W,
has a center axis of momenta just near 10N147E well southeast of Guam.
Moderate to occasionally deep convection is associated with this
feature, mainly associated with the east-west oriented trough within
which this disturbance is emebedded in. While the system remains with
no discernible center of rotation, a sharpening leading edge of the
trough will be the vorticity center on which 96W will latch onto as
it crossed the Marianas, deepening the convection as it exits to the
west. This feature will then intensify in the open waters of the
Philippine Sea as it heads towards Luzon during the weekend.

A trade-wind disturbance is centered near 5N166E well east of Kosrae.
Moderate to deep convection is associated with this feature,
producing numerous to widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms
across a wide sector of eastern Micronesia from 160E to 170E, between
2N and 7N. This feature is expected to lose its center of rotation
and bulk of convection overnight, dissipating into moreso a broad
surface trade-wind trough that will continue to move along the trades
over the next several days.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH...
An east-west oriented trough enters the region near 7N130E, extending
east across Palau, to then turn sharply to the northeast from Sorol
across the aforementioned Invest 96W and end just southeast of Guam.
Moderate to occasionally deep convection is associated with this
feature, producing numerous to widespread showers and scattered
thunderstorms in two sectors. The first sector is within 250 miles of
an axis from 12N131E southeast to Palau near 7N134E, then southeast
and then east until 5N146E southeast of Eauripik. The second sector
is associated with Invest 96W, spanning from 141E to 150E, between
10N and 13N, with a sharp leading edge just southeast of Guam.
A sharpening leading edge of the trough will be the vorticity center
on which 96W will latch onto as it crossed the Marianas, deepening
the convection as it exits to the west. This will shift the
orientation of trough over the coming days, before turning into a
broad surface trough as early as Friday.

OTHER SYSTEMS...
An Upper-level trough extends from 14N137E northeast across
Alamagan, to then extend further northeast end at an upper-level low
centered near 19N150E. Moderate convection is associated with this
feature, producing scattered to numerous thunderstorms across the
outer fringes of the aforementioned upper-level low, from 150E to
160E between 15N and 22N well northeast of the Marianas ans south of
Minamitorishima. This feature is expected to disintegrate quickly
over the next few days as is moves northward and encounters a much
stronger upper-level high.

...ITCZ...
The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) enters the region near
7N180, extending farther west to end at the tailend of the
aforementioned trade-wind disturbance just west of Majuro. Moderate
to occasionally deep convection is associated with this feature,
producing numerous showers and some thunderstorms in a smaller sector
southeast of Majuro, and in a larger sector from 175E to the Date
Line, between the Equator and 10N. This feature is likely to
disintegrate quickly over the next few days as the aforementioned
trade-wind disturbance weakens as well, diminishing local convective
activity until the weekend when a weaker ITCZ regime may return.

$$

Montvila