047
AXPQ20 PGUM 110054
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1054 AM ChST Thu Dec 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
The Near Equatorial Trough (NET) crosses into the region near 2N130E,
extending eastward to a buffer circulation centered near 1N163E, then
continue southeast to cross the Equator near 169E. Most of the
convection associated with the NET is found along and south of the
Equator. However, there is a band of convection seen north of the
NET, south of Yap and Palau, where a trade-wind trough is
interacting with the NET to produce scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. The NET and buffer are expected to remain quasi-
stationary over the coming days with little change in intensity.
Convection will fluctuate as weak trade-wind troughs move through and
interact with the NET.

SURFACE TROUGHS...

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A trade-wind trough is found southeast of Palau, south of Yap Proper,
extending west-northwest from near 4N145E to end near 6N137E. This
trough is interacting with the NET to generate scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms north of the NET from south of Palau, just
north of Pulau Bras to south of Eauripik. The trough looks to
continue to move west-southwest over the coming days with little
change in intensity.

Another trade-wind trough is found just south of Weno, Chuuk to well
east of the Marianas, extending north-northwest from near 5N152E to
end near 14N150E. Mostly isolated showers are found with this trough,
though a couple thunderstorms are found south of Weno. This trough
looks to move west over the next couple of days, with a slight
increase in intensity as it approaches the NET.

The next trade-wind trough is found south through east of Majuro,
extending north-northeast from near 1N172E to end near 6N175E. This
weak trough is interacting with the ITCZ to produce scattered to
numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms south of Majuro. This
trough looks to remain weak as it moves west over the next few days,
maintaining enhanced convection over the ITCZ.

The last trade-wind trough is found well west of the Marianas,
extending north from near 13N133E to end near 17N133E. The trough
and enhanced convergence east of the trough is producing numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms along the far western end of a
weakening shear line between 13N and 17N from 130E to 138E. The
trough and convergence will continue to move west over the next few
days as it slowly weakens and allows convection to decrease across
the western end of the shear line.

OTHER SYSTEMS...

UPPER-LEVEL LOW...
An upper-level low is centered near 11N176E. Divergence to the
southeast through south of the low is enhancing convection along the
ITCZ east of Majuro to east of the Date Line. This weak low looks to
remain quasi-stationary over the next day or so before it begins to
slowly weaken. This will maintain enhanced convection along the ITCZ.

SHEAR LINE...
A weakening shear line crosses into the region near 25N174E,
extending west-southwest across the northern CNMI near 16N146E, then
continues west to end near 130E. Scattered showers are found along
and up to 100 miles north of the shear line east of 138E. Scattered
to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are found west of
138E, where a weak trade-wind trough and associated convergence east
o the trough are interacting with the shear line. The shear line
will remain quasi-stationary, showing only a slight drift southward,
over the next few days as it continues to dissipate.

...ITCZ...
An ITCZ extends west-southwest across the Date Line near 8N to end
near 3N163E. Scattered showers are found along the ITCZ west of 168E.
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are found
along the ITCZ east of 168E where a weak trade-wind trough and
divergence associated with an upper low are interacting with the
ITCZ. The ITCZ looks to remain quasi-stationary over the next several
days with convection varying along the boundary as the weak trough
continues west. The upper-level divergence looks to remain over the
eastern end of the ITCZ, maintaining enhanced convection near the
Date Line.

$$

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