580
AXPQ20 PGUM 160132
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1132 AM ChST Thu Oct 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A tropical disturbance known as JTWC`s Invest 96W, has a moment axis
at the surface right below a mid-level low centered near 14N136E
well north-northwest of Yap. Moderate to deep convection is
associated with this feature, with deep convective cells forming
right near the center, producing widespread heavy showers within 10
miles of the center. A broad surface trough extends from said
disturbance to the south-southwest, extending all the way down to
west of Palau near 7N132E. This feature is expected to continue
moving west, before turning to the northwest right as it crossed 130E
and allows the mid-level low to finally deepen into the lower
atmosphere and develop a distinct circulation sometime Friday.

For updated information on 96W, please refer to the Significant
Tropical Weather Advisory, issued by the Joint Typhoon Warning
Center, under WMO header ABPW10 PGTW.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A former tropical disturbance, now a broad surface trade-wind trough,
extends from Enewetak southwest across Pohnpei, extending further to
end just near the Equator west of Kapingamarangi. Moderate convection
is associated with this feature, producing scattered showers and
some thunderstorms in a sector from 7N153E to 8N165E between 2N and
10N in eastern Chuuk State, Pohnpei State and well north-northwest of
Kosrae. This feature is expected to continue moving west along with
the trades, weakening and dissipating by Friday as it encounters a
ridge along the leeside of the aforementioned Invest 96W downstream.

TUTT...
A Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) enters the region near
25N168E, extending south to a TUTT low centered near 21N168E
northeast of Wake Island, to then extend farther southwest and end at
a minor upper-level perturbation east of Pohnpei. Moderate to
occasionally deep convection is associated with this feature,
producing numerous showers and thunderstorms within a compact
northeast sector from said TUTT low well north-northeast of Wake
Island, and some showers and thunderstorms along the eastern fringes
of the trough axis following 170E to Utirik. This feature is expected
to continue trekking west over the next several days as it remains
pinched between two upper-level highs, making its way to the Marianas
by late this weekend, before disintegrating under frictional forces
by early next week.

OTHER SYSTEMS...
An upper-level trough enters the region near 25N148E, extending
southwest to an upper-level low centered near 21N144E, to then extend
farther and end at another upper-level low centered near 18N136E well
north-northwest of Yap. Moderate convection is associated with this
feature, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms across a large
sector spanning much of the eastern sectors of the trough axis from
142E to 150E between 16N and 24N. This feature is expected to
dissipate by the end today as two high-pressure highs pinch and
destroy this feature.

$$

Montvila