547
AXPQ20 PGUM 110045
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1045 AM ChST Mon Aug 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL CYCLONES...
At 7:00 am, Tropical Storm Podul (16W) was centered 525 miles
southeast of Okinawa near 21.3N 134.0E. Podul is moving west at 15
mph. Maximum sustained winds are 60 mph. Widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found up to 200 south of the center with
only isolated to scattered showers north. Podul is expected to
continue to move west over the coming days while slowly intensifying.
Podul could become a typhoon within the next 36 hours.

For more information on TS Podul, please refer to bulletins from the
Joint Typhoon Warning Center under WMO header WTPN32 PGTW and from
the National Weather Service under WMO header WTPQ32 PGUM.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

TRADE-WIND AND SURFACE TROUGHS...
A weak circulation is found north of Kayangel, Palau, centered near
10N134E. Surface troughs extend north from the circulation to end
south of Podul near 16N132E. The trough is interacting with the TUTT
to produce scattered to numerous showers across the Philippine Sea
west of 134E. The trough looks to slowly drift west over the coming
days, lingering just east of 130E for the next 24 hours, while slowly
weakening.

Another trough extends south-southeast from the weak circulation to
end near EQ138E. This trough is helping to produce a monsoon-like
pattern across Palau and Yap State. Convergence west of this trough
combined with upper-level divergence is generating scattered showers
and a few thunderstorms west of 135E. This trough looks to rotate
northeast around the circulation allowing convection to spread
eastward toward Palau and western Yap State, including Yap Proper.

Another elongated trough extends east-northeastward from the
circulation to end near 15N171E. Patches of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found along the entirety of the trough. A
broad area of convergence north of the trough is interacting with a
broad area of weak upper-level divergence with the TUTT to produce
scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms between 14N
and 20N from 149E to 160E. This trough will slowly drift north over
the coming days as the trough slowly weakens and splits into a few
separate surface troughs.

A trade-wind trough is found to the west of the CNMI, extending
north-northeast from near 15N142E to end near 22N144E. This trough
lies under an area of upper-level convergence, thus inhibiting
convection to patchy showers. The trough will continue to move west
with increasing convection as it moves out from under the
convergence.

A trade-wind trough is found southwest of Pohnpei, southeast of
Weno, Chuuk, extending north-northeast from near EQ155E to end near
6N157E. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found with
this trough between Weno and Pohnpei. Another trade-wind trough is
found east of Kosrae, extending north-northeast from near EQ169E to
northeast of Majuro near 9N173E. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found with this trough across the western Marshall
Islands. These two troughs will continue to slowly move west over the
next few days with little change in intensity.

The last trade-wind trough is found east of the Marshall Islands,
extending north-northeast from near 6N177E to end near 14N180.
Upper-level convergence south of an upper ridge is minimizing
convection with the trough, with only patchy clouds and showers seen
with the trough. This trough looks to move northwest over the coming
days, possibly being absorbed by the elongated west-east oriented
surface trough mentioned above.

TUTT...
The TUTT enters the area near 23N180, extending west to cell
centered near 23N164E. The TUTT then turns west-southwest to another
cell centered near 16N152E. The TUTT then curves southwest to
southeast of Guam near 12N146E, turns northwest through a developing,
weak cell centered west of the Marianas near 14N142E to end near
24N138E. Patches of scattered showers are found along the TUTT from
the Date Line to near the first cell. Then, scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found with the first cell. A broad area of
weak divergence south of the TUTT is interacting with a broad area of
convergence north of a west-east oriented trough to produce
scattered to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms between 14N
and 20N from 149E to 160E. Enhanced convection is found with the
second cell northeast of the Marianas. Divergence between the last
two cells is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
across the CNMI. The TUTT looks to continue to drift west, with
little change in strength except for the weak cell west of the
Marianas, which is expected to slowly strengthen.

OTHER SYSTEMS...
A weak high pressure ridge has developed across the FSM and southern
Marshalls, extending west-southwest from near 7N167E to end near
EQ138E. There are patches of showers found along the ridge axis in
areas of weak convergence. The ridge looks to weaken and break apart
over the coming days.

...ITCZ...
The ITCZ has pretty much dissipated over the region, with only a few
pockets of weak convergence evident across the region. The ITCZ is
not expected to redevelop over the region for the next few days.

$$

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