048
AXPQ20 PGUM 070110
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1110 AM ChST Thu Nov 7 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL AND MONSOON DISTURBANCES...
A weak, broad circulation is centered around 5N143E, south of
Eauripik in eastern Yap State. Little to no convection is found
near the center, instead the bulk of activity is constrained along
troughs extending from this feature, further discussed in
sections below. Over the next day or so, model guidance shows
little to no development as the circulation moves west-
northwest, possibly opening up into a trough as it approaches
Palau Friday.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
A near-equatorial trough (NET) extends from 6N133E, south of the
main islands of Palau, to a weak circulation near 5N143E, then
extends to the equator near 150E, well south of Chuuk State.
A cluster of showers and a few thunderstorms are found south of
Palau and another area of moderate convection is located
southeast of the embedded circulation, where westerly winds
collide with the trades. The NET may reorient itself to become
more N-S in the coming days, depending on the evolution the
circulation. Although this feature may be short-lived, it may
signify the beginnings of a seasonal shift in regional weather
pattern, where the NET is a more consistent feature in dry
season.

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A broad trade-wind trough extends across the Marianas, from
10N142E to 22N148E. A vorticity max near the southern CNMI, as
well as an upper-level high, is providing some support and
inducing widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
Marianas, especially near Tinian and Saipan. This feature
continues moving westward, maintaining similar intensity, with
some models depicted an embedded circulation as it moves west of
140E.

A series of trade-wind troughs are embedded in the ITCZ, helping
to spread convection north and south of the boundary. As the
pattern evolves (see ITCZ section for more information) this looks
to result into one broad surface trough moving across Kosrae and
Pohnpei over the next few days.

A couple of weak trade-wind troughs are moving within a moderate
to fresh trade flow, one located between 10N160E and 17N158E and
the other between 17N168E and 21N165E. These features are
expecting to continue propagating westward.

ITCZ...
An Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) extends into the region
at 11N180, dipping slightly south to 7N160E. A broad area of
scattered to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are
found along this boundary, spread out between 1N and 12N. The ITCZ
looks to fragment as a possible tropical disturbance is expected
to develop near Chuuk in the coming days. Then, a moderate ITCZ
pattern may begin to build back starting at the Marshalls late
this weekend.

$$

IC