Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
482 AXPQ20 PGUM 280122 TWDPQ Tropical Weather Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 1122 AM ChST Fri Feb 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... None. ...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS... TRADE-WIND TROUGHS... A few trade-wind troughs are seen across the region. The first is seen over a broad area covering southeastern Yap State, extending south-southeast from 8N141E to 3N142E. A few areas of convection are seen west of Eauripik, and in bands just south of Faraulep, but overall shower coverage is spotty across the trough axis. To the east, scattered showers are seen within an area of trade-wind convergence associated with shallow north-northwest to south- southeast oriented troughing located southwest of Pohnpei and near Kosrae. The trough over western Micronesia looks to build northwest toward Yap and Palau over the weekend, bringing widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region into early next week. Troughs seen near Pohnpei and Kosrae look to shift west over the next day or so, contributing to showers over Chuuk State this weekend. OTHER SYSTEMS... COLD FRONT/SHEAR LINE... The frontal system that was seen within the AOR yesterday has shifted further east. A cold front extends into the region near 25N168E, dipping south-southwest to near Wake Island around 20N165E. Here, a weak embedded circulation is seen over Wake Island where the cold front begins to fragment into a trailing shear line. The shear line then extends west-southwest toward the Marianas, passing over Guam and Rota before continuing beyond 11N130E. Bands of scattered showers and cloudiness are seen along and north of the cold front and shear line, with some heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms seen in the shear line fragment west of the Marianas. The cold front will continue to shift east and weaken, while the shear line looks to linger near Guam for the next day or so, increasing shower chances through Saturday before dipping further south, as a strong trough develops over western Micronesia. .ITCZ... A weak fragment of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is seen over the southern Marshall Islands, extending east-northeast from around 5N169E to around 7N180. Scattered showers are seen over the southern RMI south of Majuro Atoll, becoming numerous further east where the ITCZ meets the Date Line. A weak and fragmented ITCZ looks to remain over eastern Micronesia for the next few days, increasing showers near Kosrae and Pohnpei this weekend into early next week, especially with any embedded troughs. $$ DeCou