211
AXPQ20 PGUM 080007
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1007 AM ChST Sat Feb 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
The Near Equatorial Trough (NET) stretches east from just south of
Mindanao, crossing 130E near 3N. The NET passes through a broad,
weak circulation, roughly centered near 3N136E, then turns southeast
to beyond the equator near 139E. Cloudiness with numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms is seen with the NET, mostly south of Koror,
Palau. Little change is expected with the NET over the coming days as
it remains quasi-stationary. An approaching trade-wind trough is
expected to interact with the NET over Palau within the next several
hours, increasing convection over the Republic.

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
There are three main trade-wind troughs evident on satellite and the
latest surface analysis across the region. The first is east of
Palau, extending north from the weak circulation centered near 3N136E
to end just south of Yap Proper near 8N138E. Scattered to numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen west of the trough, east
of Palau, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms seen in a
narrow band of convergence just east of the trough. The trough will
continue to move west over the coming days, interacting with the NET
over Palau within the next several hours, increasing convection
across Palau.

The next trough is found between Weno, Chuuk and Pohnpei, extending
north from near 2N154E to 7N155E. The trough is interacting with the
western end of a diffuse ITCZ to generate scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms west to south of Weno, with decreasing
convection seen east of the trough. This trough will continue to move
west over the next few days, with decreasing convection as it pulls
away to the west of the ITCZ.

A third trough is evident a little farther east, stretching
northeast from southeast of Kosrae near 2N164E to Majuro near
7N171E. The trough is interacting with the ITCZ, with scattered
showers seen across Majuro, becoming numerous farther southwest, to
the east of Kosrae. This trough will continue moving west, spreading
increased convection across Kosrae to just south of Pohnpei over the
coming days.

OTHER SYSTEMS...
The remnants of a decaying cold front extend west-southwest across
the Date Line near 25N to around 21N165E, then continues west-
southwest across the northern CNMI, just north of Saipan, as a shear
line to end near 12N130E. A narrow band of cloudiness with rain and
patchy showers are present along the decaying front and shear line
east of 150E, with increasing cloudiness and showers along the shear
line west of 150E. The front will continue to dissipate and will
likely lose definition over the next day or two. The shear line looks
to slowly drift south, dragging scattered showers along with it.

...ITCZ...
An ITCZ stretches westward across the Date Line near 7N, passing just
south of Majuro near 7N171E, then turns southwest, passing south of
Kosrae. The ITCZ then turns west again to end south of Weno, Chuuk
near 4N152E. The ITCZ is fairly diffuse, with struggling convection
seen across the boundary except in a couple of areas where trade-wind
troughs are interacting with it. These area are south of Weno and
east of Kosrae, as mentioned in the trade-wind trough section above.
The ITCZ is expected to continue to meander north and south over the
coming days, with mostly scattered showers seen along the boundary.
There will be flare ups of numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms where trade-wind troughs interact with the ITCZ.

$$

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