600
AXPQ20 PGUM 050054
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
1054 AM ChST Thu Dec 5 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...
A surface trough in the trades extends from a buffer circulation
at EQ135E in a "wavy form" to between Yap and Ngulu, to west of
the Marianas/CNMI. This feature has weakened considerable over the
last couple of days, with no significant convection associated
with it currently. This feature will continue westward, exiting
Guam`s area of responsibility in the next 36 to 48 hours.

The next surface trough stretched from 3.4N 147.8E through
Satawal in eastern Yap State to 15.9N 149.9E, some ~425 miles east
of the Marianas/CNMI. This feature delineates the leading edge of
a trade-wind surge, and a moisture plume with with a decent swath
of 2.5 inch PWATs, locally topping out at 3 inches. This feature
looks to cross the Marianas Friday, briefly bringing increased
rainfall potential in the form of scattered showers. and for all
of Yap State and the Republic of Koror for Friday into the
weekend, as these featured move westward over the next several
days.

A third surface trough has crossed the Date Line and stretches
from the southern Marshall Islands through Majuro to east of
Kwajalein, ending near Eniwetok. Patchy convection, in the form
of showers is located just east of Kwajalein, through Majuro, to
the southern Marshall Islands. This feature will continue
westward, with the models developing an ITCZ over the weekend into
next week as it continues its westward journey.

TRADE-WIND SURGE...
A trade-wind surge is located between 8N and 24N from 149E to
169E. Here, winds increase into the moderate to fresh range, with
seas of 8 to 12 feet expected based off of the latest altimetry
data and model forecasts. This feature will continue its westward
movement the next several days, mainly affecting Guam and the CNMI
for Friday into the weekend, and perhaps early next week, before
departing those locations.

$$

Doll