074
AXPQ20 PGUM 052348
TWDPQ

Tropical Weather Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
948 AM ChST Sat Dec 6 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between
the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is
based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,
and meteorological analysis.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

None.

...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...

NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...
The Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) enters the region near 9N130E,
extending east-southeast across Palau and much of Yap State, ending
at a buffer circulation centered near 1N160E east of Kapingamarangi.
Moderate to occasionally deep convection is associated with this
feature, producing scattered to numerous showers and patches of
thunderstorms within a large area between the Equator and south of
the trough axis between 130E and the aforementioned buffer
circulation. This feature is expected to shift closer to the Equator
over the next few days as the leading edge of the trade-wind surge
pushes it down, with most of the convection shifting and compacting
around the buffer circulation. By the weekend, the aforementioned
buffer is likely to dissipate as a twin circulation in the Southern
Hemisphere becomes dominant.

TRADE-WIND SURGE...
A leading edge of a tradewind surge is spanning much of central and
eastern Micronesia, pushing down shearline fragments from distant
decaying cold fronts, and interacting with the tail end of the
aforementioned NET near Kapingamarangi. Moderate to occasionally deep
convection is associated with this feature, producing a distinctive
line of clouds near or along 10N, as well as a pocket of
thunderstorms just northeast of Chuuk. In addition, widespread
showers and some thunderstorms have developed just upstream of the
buffer circulation over much of Pohnpei State, including Kosrae. As
mentioned in the previous section, the trade-wind surge will continue
to strengthen as the temperature and pressure gradient increases
between the tropics and the mid-latitudes, pushing down the NET and
instigating more instability within the buffer circulation. The
trade-wind surge is expected to weaken considerably by early next
week, before another cycle arrives toward the end of next week.

OTHER SYSTEMS...
A quasi-stationary front enters the region at around 15N153E just
northwest of Minamitorishima, extending west-southwest to an embedded
circulation near 22N138E southwest of Iwo-To, to then extend further
southwest and exit the region near 18N130E. Moderate convection is
associated with this feature, producing periods of rain and some
thunderstorms within 200 miles of the frontal axis, and within a
minor squall along 140E south of the embedded circulation and well
west-northwest of the Marianas. As usual for this time of year, the
quasi-stationary front will continue to move east as it follows an
extensive cold front, decaying as it elongates and eventually
fragmenting as it gets pushed down by high pressure cells coming into
early next week.

$$

Montvila