Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
923 FXZS60 NSTU 080106 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 206 PM SST Tue Jan 7 2025 .Short term... TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) will continue to bring gusty winds, heavy rain, and thunderstorms to the Samoan islands through Thursday night. This is due to an unstable atmospheric profile, as indicated by the RAOB from this afternoon, which shows strong, gusty winds at 925 mb. The SPCZ axis, currently positioned to the southwest, is expected to remain in close proximity to the islands, oscillating near the area in the coming days. Meanwhile, a stationary ridge to the northeast will help maintain severe weather conditions across the region. On Thursday, a low pressure is forecast to develop within the SPCZ southwest of the islands. As this low moves southeast, it is expected to slightly increase winds 25 to 30 mph, with higher gusts, by Thursday night. Widespread showers, heavy at times, will continue and the SPCZ presence will keep unsettled weather in place throughout the week. .Long term... FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) will persist through Friday night, maintaining strong and gusty winds across the islands. A low pressure to the south southeast will continue to influence the weather, keeping these conditions in place through Friday night. As the SPCZ axis moves over the islands, winds will gradually weaken, shifting to a breezy westward flow by Saturday afternoon. Showers are expected to decrease to scattered levels by the same time. As the SPCZ axis progresses northeast, winds will continue to diminish and shift to a westward directions by Saturday night. More stable weather is expected to settle over the islands, with gentle southwest winds starting to dominate on Sunday and continuing into the beginning of the new week. && .Marine... The active South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) will continue to produce strong and gusty winds through Friday night, maintaining hazardous seas tonight through Wednesday night. While north swells have slightly diminished, causing surf heights to fall below warning levels, another round of north swells is expected to arrive on Thursday night. This will bring surfs back to warning thresholds, where it will remain through Friday night. As the swells pass the islands, seas and surfs will gradually decrease from warning to advisory levels by Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, seas are forecast to subside 7 to 9 feet, with these conditions expected to persist through the start of the new week. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind advisory remains in effect High surf advisory remains in effect Small craft advisory remains in effect Flood watch remains in effect && $$