Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago

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FXZS60 NSTU 080106
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
206 PM SST Tue Jan 7 2025

.Short term...
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) will continue to bring
gusty winds, heavy rain, and thunderstorms to the Samoan islands
through Thursday night. This is due to an unstable atmospheric
profile, as indicated by the RAOB from this afternoon, which shows
strong, gusty winds at 925 mb. The SPCZ axis, currently positioned
to the southwest, is expected to remain in close proximity to the
islands, oscillating near the area in the coming days. Meanwhile,
a stationary ridge to the northeast will help maintain severe
weather conditions across the region.

On Thursday, a low pressure is forecast to develop within the SPCZ
southwest of the islands. As this low moves southeast, it is
expected to slightly increase winds 25 to 30 mph, with higher
gusts, by Thursday night. Widespread showers, heavy at times, will
continue and the SPCZ presence will keep unsettled weather in
place throughout the week.

.Long term...
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) will persist through
Friday night, maintaining strong and gusty winds across the
islands. A low pressure to the south southeast will continue to
influence the weather, keeping these conditions in place through
Friday night. As the SPCZ axis moves over the islands, winds will
gradually weaken, shifting to a breezy westward flow by Saturday
afternoon. Showers are expected to decrease to scattered levels by
the same time.

As the SPCZ axis progresses northeast, winds will continue to
diminish and shift to a westward directions by Saturday night.
More stable weather is expected to settle over the islands, with
gentle southwest winds starting to dominate on Sunday and
continuing into the beginning of the new week.

&&

.Marine...
The active South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) will continue to
produce strong and gusty winds through Friday night, maintaining
hazardous seas tonight through Wednesday night. While north swells
have slightly diminished, causing surf heights to fall below
warning levels, another round of north swells is expected to
arrive on Thursday night. This will bring surfs back to warning
thresholds, where it will remain through Friday night.

As the swells pass the islands, seas and surfs will gradually
decrease from warning to advisory levels by Saturday. By Saturday
afternoon, seas are forecast to subside 7 to 9 feet, with these
conditions expected to persist through the start of the new week.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind advisory remains in effect
High surf advisory remains in effect
Small craft advisory remains in effect
Flood watch remains in effect

&&

$$