127
FXZS60 NSTU 090125
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
225 PM SST Mon Dec 8 2025

.DISCUSSION...
The latest satellite imageries show an active trough to the west
of the Samoa Islands connected to a low pressure system to the
south of the Fiji Islands. The close proximitiy of the trough has
held numerous showers, heavy at times with gusty northeast winds
over the islands throughout the day. These patterns will likely
remain over the territory for tonight through at least Tuesday.
This is also supported by the upper air observations (RAOB) from
this afternoon (09/00Z). By midweek, model solutions show the
trough moving south and remaining further west of the area as
gentle to moderate easterlies prevail for this time frame. Another
feature shown on the model data is an equatorial ridge together
with another high pressure system to the southeast of the area,
generating the gentle easterlies with embedded showers. These
showers will likely be brief.

As the week progresses, model data shows a low pressure system
forming over the Solomon Islands, migrating south of the Fiji
Islands by Sunday, moving east-northeast by Monday over Niue and
the Tonga Islands. By this time frame, winds will have turned
north-northwest and a trough connected to this low pressure system
will move over the area as it produces numerous to widespread
showers with possible thunderstorms.

Further monitoriing of these conditions will continue as more
data becomes available.

&&

.Marine...
Observations at the PacIOOS buoy near Aunu`u show heights around 7
to 9 feet with peak periods around 10 to 13 seconds long. These
values translate to around 9 to 11 feet surfs. Hence, the advisories
for high surfs and small crafts remains in effect. Model data show
these conditions remaining over the coastal waters through at least
early Tuesday. Models are showing a downward trend thereafter. By
midweek, seas will be well below advisory levels as winds will also
decrease. Additionally, the aforementioned trough to the west will
continue to move away from the area and the threat of thunderstorms
will likely decrease. Overall, there is no other significant swell
expected for the rest of the week after Tuesday.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

JTAllen