587
FXZS60 NSTU 090117
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
217 PM SST Tue Jul 8 2025

.Discussion...
Latest satellite data shows a line of cumulus and stratus clouds
associated with a trough extending over the American Samoa region.
This feature continues to produce showers for the territory,
though very light. From yesterday`s forecast we expected the
trough to shift slightly north today before dissipating, however,
it remains anchored in the area. The sounding from this afternoon
confirms a saturated surface to 800 mb profile, which confirms the
moist atmosphere associated with the trough. However, instability
parameters suggests a stable profile. Hence, widespread showers
becoming numerous later tonight will continue, though rain may be
light.

Additionally, winds from the south at 10 to 15 mph will hold
through tonight. By Wednesday, expect winds to be slightly
enhance to 10 to 20 mph, while it shifts east. A high pressure
system building to the southwest will drive winds for the rest of
the forecast period as it moves eastward. However, the proximity
of the trough could enhance showers by Wednesday, especially for
Manu`a. Will actively monitor the development of the trough for
the next few days, as models haven`t had a good handle on rainfall
amounts, especially as most of the rain has been surface-driven.

By Friday the high pressure system will continue to strengthen,
enhancing trade winds for the area.

&&
.Marine...
Latest wave heights have subsided to 6 to 8 feet as winds continue
to weaken in the area. However, signals of 14-second peak periods
suggests a southeast swell is in the area. Although, peak periods
are slightly elevated, the high surf advisory was cancelled this
morning due to surfs falling below 10 feet. However, rip currents
may still be strong in some areas due to the swells.

Seas are forecast to gradually elevate Wednesday night, following
the increasing trend for winds. However, a small craft advisory
may likely continue as long as wave heights are near the 8-foot
threshold, or if winds reach 20 knots.

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory

&&

$$

TM