Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
295 FXZS60 NSTU 271751 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 651 AM SST Thu Mar 27 2025 .Update... Satellite imagery this morning shows showers to the east moving towards American Samoa as discussed below. However, lightning has been detected with these showers. These thunderstorms may occur as the trough moves over the territory. We added the possibility of thunderstorms to the forecast for this afternoon through the overnight hours. .Previous discussion... /issued 223 PM SST Wed Mar 26 2025/ Short term... Dry east/southeasterly flow remained over the American Samoa islands today to give plenty of sunshine and light winds over the region. Skies are expected to remain partly cloudy through the overnight with only a slight chance of a passing shower. Throughout the day on Thursday, we are anticipated to have a sunny start to the day, but a trough from the east is forecast to move over the region late in the day/in the evening hours. As the trough moves over, the risk of rainfall increases to numerous showers (60% chance). However, rainfall is not expected to cause flash flooding. The trough is to move west of the islands by midday Friday. Light easterly winds become variable by Friday. Long term... A weak South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is forecast to remain well to the south of American Samoa for this weekend and into early next week. However, there is enough instability to produce showers (40% chance) but not heavy enough to produce flash flooding. Otherwise, winds remain light and variable during this time with temperatures slightly above average. Marine... Strong swell are shown to be moving through the American Samoa coastal waters as seen on the PacIOOS buoy just to the west of Poloa. However, seas remain around 5 to 6 feet and calculated surf along the southern and western shores are not high enough for a High Surf Advisory. Otherwise, ideal conditions are expected through the next 5 days as period timing will slowly decrease through the weekend. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ LaPlante