541
FXZS60 NSTU 100113
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
213 PM SST Thu Jan 9 2025

.DISCUSSION...
The latest fixes from RSMC Nadi places Tropical Disturbance 04F
(96P) about 473 miles south-southwest of Pago Pago. The latest
model data tracks TD04F further south-southeast within the next 24
to 48 hours as it intensifies. There is no direct impact for
American Samoa from TD04F. However, the South Pacific Convergence
Zone (SPCZ) is expected to remain over the area of responsibility
(AOR) for the rest of the day through at least Friday night.
Strong northwest winds, gusty at times with heavy downpours is
expected to remain over the islands through at least Friday.
North-northwest winds are likely to funnel down in the harbor area
and near mountains, resulting in much higher gusts. Upper air
observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (10/00Z) continues to
show flash flooding conditions with winds peaking at 46 mph near
the surface. Model data also show the SPCZ intensifying as it
remains over the area for the next few days. Thus, a high wind
warning and flash flood watch remains in effect for tonight
through at least late Friday.

Long term model solutions show a large high pressure system to the
southwest migrating east, pushing the SPCZ to the north by Monday
and keeps it there through the rest of the forecast period. By
this time frame, winds and showers will significantly decrease
beginning the new week. Therefore, expect scattered showers with
gentle to moderate southeast winds for the rest of the forecast
period.

&&

.Marine...
Seas reported from the PacIOOS buoys to the west and east of
Tutuila Island still remains in the advisory thresholds. However,
with winds expected to increase to near gale strengths over the
coastal waters, together with the intensification and position of
TD04F, it is likely that seas and surfs will elevate to warning
levels for tonight through at least Friday. Will continue to
monitor and issue alerts, when more data becomes available.
Additionally, with the large swell and strong winds, the risk for
stronger rip currents is very likely. Thus, the advisories for
high surfs and small crafts remains in effect.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning
High Surf Advisory
Small Craft Advisory
Flood Watch

&&

$$

JTAllen