Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
069 FXZS60 NSTU 230059 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 159 PM SST Fri Nov 22 2024 .DISCUSSION... Thunderstorm activity embedded within an active trough just to the north of the territory continues to build as it moves southward. Upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (23/00Z) shows a moist and unstable atmosphere. Model data suggests that the trough will remain over the area tonight through the new week. The potential for flash flooding conditions to impact the territory is high. Numerous to widespread showers, heavy at times with thunderstorms is likely to remain over the islands through early Saturday. Gentle to moderate easterlies with locally higher gusts is also expected for this time frame. Long term model solutions show the aforementioned trough remaining over the area. However, the trough will weaken at times but nonetheless, still remain over the area. Model data shows a high pressure system to the south, holding the trough in the area. By far, expect scattered to numerous showers with gentle to moderate easterlies on Sunday through the rest of the forecast period. && .Marine... Observations from the PacIOOS buoy near Aunu`u show seas subsiding compared to the last 24 hour observations. This downward trend is expected to continue through the weekend, and into the new week. Seas of 6 to 8 feet will subside to 5 to 7 feet by Saturday through the rest of the forecast period. However, thunderstorms nearby will likely elevate seas and create gusty winds, locally. Therefore, the advisory for small crafts remains in effect through early Saturday. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory && $$ JTAllen