792
FXZS60 NSTU 130050
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
150 PM SST Sun Oct 12 2025

.Short term [tonight through Tuesday night]...
A trough over American Samoa has brought cloudy conditions, well
below average temperatures, and multiple rounds of showers
throughout the day. Today`s 00Z RAOB upper-air profile revealed a
very moist and unstable environment that remains favorable for
possible heavy rainfall and thunderstorms, especially during the
evening and early overnight hours when the low levels moisten
even further given the decrease in daytime heating. After
midnight, high pressure to the south is forecast to push this
trough north of the territory. This should decrease rainfall to
passing showers through at least Tuesday. Trade winds out of the
east to southeast at around 15 mph are expected throughout the
short term forecast period.

.Long term [Wednesday through Sunday]...
The high pressure system south of the territory will move away to
the east, allowing the trough to move back south and closer to
the territory bringing a slight increase in showers mid through
late week. The pressure gradient associated with the trough is
likely to briefly increase winds to breezy conditions on Friday
as it continues closer to the islands. The trough is forecast to
continue drifting southward and move directly over the territory
Friday night through the weekend. If this occurs, widespread
showers would be expected with the potential for heavy rainfall
and thunderstorms. This would lead to another round of possible
flash flooding conditions for the islands.

&&

.Marine...
Seas throughout the day have remained rough and choppy, observed
in the 8 to 9 foot range at Aunu`u buoy. With short period times,
surf heights remain just above advisory threshold at around 10
feet. Models indicate that seas could subside slightly (6 to 8
feet) tomorrow, remaining above Small Craft Advisory threshold
but potentially decreasing surf heights below advisory levels.
Seas are then expected to rise back to 7 to 9 feet Tuesday night
through Wednesday night with winds around 15 knots, before
decreasing back 6 to 8 feet Thursday. Overall, choppy seas in the
6 to 9 foot range resulting from winds out of the east to
southeast at 10 to 20 knots are anticipated througout the
forecast period. No significant swells are expected.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory remains in effect
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
Flood Watch remains in effect

&&

$$

Barton