773
FXZS60 NSTU 110055
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
155 PM SST Sun Aug 10 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite data shows a weak trough over the area producing cloudy
conditions with passing showers throughout the day. The more
convective part of the trough with heavy thunderstorm activity is
concentrated to the north-northwest of the Samoa Islands. This is
not expected to move over the islands. In fact, the latest model
data shows this trough moving westward, aligning with easterlies
pushing it westward. Once the trough is pushed away from the area
tonight, gentle to moderate easterlies will prevail through at
least midweek. Expect embedded passing showers within the easterly
flow to remain for this time period.

By Wednesday night through the rest of the week, easterlies will
increase to a fresh breeze as a high pressure system to the
southwest moves south of the region. As the winds turn southeast,
another surface trough from the east-northeast will meet with the
southeasterlies and likely produce conducive conditions for
showers across the territory for Wednesday night through Thursday.
The likelihood for flash flooding conditions for this time frame
will be determined by the terrain induced convections. As the
week progresses, winds will turn east-northeast with embedded
passing showers.

Overall, expect numerous showers with a gentle to moderate east
flow for tonight becoming scattered showers through Wednesday. A
fresh southeast to northeast wind flow with embedded showers is
expected for the second half of the week into the new week.

&&

.Marine...
Favorable ocean conditions have been observed throughout the day
and the last 24 hours. Models are showing this trend remaining
through at least Monday. By Monday night, seas will gradually
build, yet again, due to a large south swell. This swell is
expected to have periods peaking at more than 15 seconds long. In
these conditions, surfs are expected to increase as they approach
the beaches, and rip currents will become hazardous. These
conditions will be monitored closely due to model data uncertainties,
as it may well be peaking at borderline between an advisory or
warning level.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$