479
FXZS60 NSTU 020114
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
214 PM SST Mon Dec 1 2025

.DISCUSSION...
Upper air observations (RAOB) from this afternoon (02/00Z) signals
at a high probability of thunderstorms and instability lingering
over the area. This is further observed on the latest satellite
imageries with moderate to heavy thunderstorm activity between the
Manu`a Islands and Rose Atoll. These single cell convections are
also remnants of the active trough further east of the Samoa
Islands. Also observed on the latest RAOB is a decreased moisture
content from the mid to upper levels, minimizing the threat of
flash flooding. Model data shows a high pressure system to the
south holding the aforementioned trough to the northeast and east
through at least Thursday. This will bring isolated to scattered
showers with light and variable winds for this time frame.

Model data also tries to develop several low pressure systems
within the trough line throughout the week. Thus far, not one has
a chance of further developing. By Thursday night, model data
shows another high pressure system from the southwest, migrating
east as it continues to hold the trough north of the islands. Long
term model data shows a low pressure system developing over the
Fiji Islands by early Sunday, and has it moving south-southeast
for the rest of the forecast period. The developing low pressure
system will turn winds northeast and produce scattered to numerous
showers for this time frame.

&&

.Marine...
A long period north-northwest swell is expected to linger over
the coastal waters throughout the forecast period. Long periods
peaking at 20 seconds will likely generate strong rip currents
even though seas are expected to remain below advisory levels
(< or = 8 feet). Models are showing a gradual build of seas to
at least 5 to 7 feet on Wednesday through Thursday. Additionally,
king tides are expected on Wednesday through at least Friday.
These two features in place throughout the week will be the main
threats for the week. Model data also show light and variable
winds to remain across the islands throughout the week, except for
isolated single-cell thunderstorms elevating seas and winds nearby
from time to time.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE

&&

$$

JTAllen