Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
003 FXZS60 NSTU 090154 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 254 PM SST Fri Nov 8 2024 .Discussion... Latest satellite data shows showers embedded within the trough from previous forecasts migrating southward. Model trends suggests the aforementioned trough lingering in the region through the weekend. However, the strength of the trough will vary depending on its position. For this reason, expect showers to diminish in the area tonight as it moves slightly south, then increase tomorrow morning to numerous when it moves back north. A gentle breeze will remain through Saturday before building to 10 to 20 mph Saturday afternoon as a ridge behind the trough briefly extends over the territory. Thereafter, the trough will move further south on Sunday. However, models diverge Sunday night as the ECMWF brings widespread showers with another round of moisture, while the GFS model shows scattered showers through the new week as the build of the moisture is focused more south. Will continue to monitor how this plays out as we are not confident in the potential for flooding at this time. However, expect east winds to become light and variable Sunday night through Tuesday as the ridge recedes in the area. Thereafter, trade winds will build from the east due to a strong high pressure system to the south. Breezy winds and scattered showers will persist through the end of the forecast period. && .Marine... A small craft advisory remains in effect even as winds and seas have subsided in the area. This is due to another increasing trend for winds expected on Saturday. However, ideal ocean conditions will follow Sunday through Tuesday as winds become light and variable. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory && $$ TM