Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
341 FXZS60 NSTU 150119 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 219 PM SST Tue Oct 14 2025 .Short term... Satellite imagery shows the trough over the American Samoa islands this past weekend and Monday, that gave above average rainfall over the territory, has moved to the north. A ridge of high pressure has moved over the region to give plenty of sunshine over the territory. Easterly trades are to increase up to 20 mph through Wednesday night, which is still below the Wind Advisory criteria. The ridge is forecast to remain over the region through Wednesday night to give below average rainfall. If showers occur, it would be in the passing form. For Thursday and Friday, the aforementioned ridge moves away from the region. This will allow moisture from the north to move over the islands to give more clouds than sun during the day. However, the risk of rainfall is scattered showers (50% chance) and flash flooding is not expected. Easterly trades are to decrease during this time. .Long term... For the weekend, above average rainfall is back in the forecast with a projected low pressure system well to the southeast of the territory to pull a trough from the north over American Samoa. Cloudy skies are forecast with consistent rainfall possible. We are also monitoring the potential for heavy rain during this time. Winds are to shift from the east to the north/northeast, but is forecast to remain around 10 to 15 mph with potentially higher gusts near heavy rainfall. && .Marine... As the long fetch easterly breeze increased, wind driven seas have been building throughout the overnight and early morning hours. As of Tuesday afternoon, data from the PacIOOS buoy to the east of Aunu`u shows seas around 8 feet and the buoy to the west of Tutuila is above average. As winds decrease on Thursday through the weekend, seas are to subside to below Small Craft Advisory levels. Even though southerly swell is projected to move through the region by Thursday evening through the weekend, the surf is not projected to reach High Surf Advisory conditions. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. && $$ LaPlante