Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
Issued by NWS Pago Pago
943 FXZS60 NSTU 240105 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 205 PM SST Sat Aug 23 2025 .DISCUSSION... Satellite imageries continue to show a trough remaining to the south of the Samoa Islands. Also shown are the embedded clouds within the easterly wind flow moving across the territory. Model data disagreement on moisture content over the area throughout the forecast period will likely vary on a day to day basis. However, as model data suggest the moderate to fresh easterly breeze will dominate the forecast period, mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers will likely remain over the islands. By Tuesday, the EC model is showing a line of showers from the north to east moving over the islands as a low pressure system to the south pulls it in. The GFS model keeps the line of showers to the north as the aforementioned low pressure system migrates southeast. With the two different scenarios, the extent of the precipitable water amount over the are will likely be dependent on where this line positions itself. Therefore, expect isolated to scattered showers, possibly becoming numerous at times with moderate to fresh easterlies for this forecast period. && .Marine... Recent observations at the PacIOOS buoy near Aunu`u Island show heights around 6 to 8 feet with peak periods less than 10 seconds, while the periods at the King-Poloa buoy are around 10 to 12 seconds long. These values places surfs below the advisory criteria. However, model data is showing a gradual build in seas, peaking on Monday through Tuesday as a moderate to fresh easterly breeze prevails. Hence, the continuance of the high surf advisory through the new week. Models also show the fresh breeze remaining for the rest of the new week, likely sustaining the high seas and surfs. Will continue to monitor conditions as more data becomes available. In the meantime, advisories for small crafts and high surfs continues to remain in effect. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory && $$ JTAllen