400
FXZS60 NSTU 280054
AFDPPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pago Pago  AS
154 PM SST Thu Nov 27 2025

.Discussion...

Latest satellite imageries show cloudy skies over and surrounding
the territory with embedded heavy showers and potential for
thunderstorms, triggering a Flash Flood Warning earlier in the
day. This is reflected in this afternoon`s RAOB upper-air
sounding, which revealed an unstable atmosphere with extremely
high moisture content, favorable for possible flash flooding.
These conditions are due to a strong trough in the subtropical
jet stream in the mid to upper-levels of the atmosphere over the
territory. Potential for heavy rainfall activity should diminish
over the territory by tomorrow afternoon as the upper-trough
moves away to the east.

Yet another mid-level trough is depicted by the models to develop
over the Samoan Island Chain this weekend. This could promote the
potential for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms once again by late
Saturday into Sunday. By next week, rainfall is forecast to
return to near-average. Winds should generally remain light
(under 10 mph) throughout the forecast period. However, higher
gusts may occur near heavy showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.Marine...
Sea conditions are forecast continue to remain at favorable
levels through the end of the forecast period. Seas have subsided
4 to 6 feet and are expected to remain around that level through
the period as winds will remain light and variable. However,
models also show a long period swell from the north by at least
Saturday afternoon. Although combined sea heights will be low,
period times will be around 15 to 17 seconds. The longer the
periods, the stronger the currents. Surfs however, should still
remain well below Advisory levels given the low sea heights.
Additionally, with the troughs moving over the area, heavy
showers and thunderstorms may elevate seas and winds nearby
through this weekend.

&&

.PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Friday

&&

$$

Barton