143
FNUS75 KPIH 122314
FWSPIH

Spot Forecast for N.Z. Piles-Yale Creek Unit 3C...USFS
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
514 PM MDT Mon May 12 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on May 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at 208-232-9357, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Well...it`s going to be a bit wet. For what it`s worth, consensus
in shower activity among the high resolution models is lowest
through about 11 AM Tuesday morning with some models showing
numerous morning showers, some showing less, and some mostly
keeping all activity to the north and west of the burn.
Thereafter, however, all models agree on shower activity becoming
much more widespread, potentially oscillating between periods of
several hours with on-and-off activity and breaks, and periods of
several hours of steady light rain. By Wednesday morning, there is
a 75% chance that at least 0.25 inches of rain/snow liquid
equivalent will have fallen over the burn, and a 40% chance that
at least 0.50 inches will have fallen. Even if snow showers do mix
in Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, marginal temperatures will
not support much, if any accumulation/sticking over the burn area.
A few additional comments and details have been added to various
fields below. Winds will generally be on the light side, and at
this time any isolated thunderstorms do not appear capable of
supporting wind gusts in excess of 35 MPH even with a direct hit.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers
                    throughout the morning, but then better
                    confidence in more numerous rain showers and
                    isolated thunderstorms starting after 11 AM.
                    Best chance of a thunderstorm 2 PM to 7 PM.
CWR.................25 percent.
Chance of thunder...25 percent.
Max temperature.....48 to 52 degrees.
Min humidity........45 to 50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light north to northwest drainage winds turning
                    southwest 5 to 8 MPH shortly after sunrise.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon, although at this
                    time peak gusts are not expected to exceed 35 MPH.
Mixing height.......5200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 MPH.
Rainfall amount.....0.07 inches.
Snow level..........7200-7800 ft.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain and snow showers likely throughout
                    the night.
CWR.................72 percent.
Chance of thunder...5 percent.
Min temperature.....33 to 37 degrees.
Max humidity........91 to 96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest to west winds around 6 MPH in the
                    evening becoming light overnight.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 10 MPH.
Rainfall amount.....0.27 inches.
Snow level..........6700-7200 ft.

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Rain and snow showers in the morning,
                    then rain showers likely and isolated
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................70 percent.
Chance of thunder...23 percent.
Max temperature.....44 to 48 degrees.
Min humidity........58 to 63 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West to northwest winds 5 to 8 MPH. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon, although at this time peak gusts
                    are not expected to exceed 35 MPH.
Mixing height.......4900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 14 MPH.
Rainfall amount.....0.26 inches.
Snow level..........6900-7400 ft.

$$

Forecaster...KSmith
Requested by...Jarrod Zweigart
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2513825.0/PIH
.DELDT 05/12/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jarrod.zweigart@usda.gov