


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID
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600 FXUS65 KPIH 081932 AFDPIH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pocatello ID 132 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot weather this afternoon and on Wednesday. - Cold front arrives late Wednesday bringing slightly cooler weather for late week but returning to above normal temps for the weekend. - Red flag conditions for wind and humidity Wednesday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 The heat is on across the region as temperatures have already climbed well into the 90s across much of our lower elevation areas this afternoon. They`ll continue to climb into the mid to upper 90s before the day is over as high pressure remains in full control today. Afternoon satellite imagery is beginning to show some slow CU development across the central mountains and this area does appear in line to see some isolated shower/thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. Given the extremely dry airmass, expecting these to be of the dry variety but will likely produce some gusty outflow winds and maybe some lightning. Things look very similar for tomorrow with temperatures within a degree or two of today`s highs. The biggest difference will be the increase in winds as a shortwave moves through the region. These winds combined with hot temps and low RHs set the stage for Red Flag conditions on Wednesday. For more info, see the fire weather discussion below. As the shortwave moves through the region, it could spark some showers/thunderstorms once again, but with a bit more areal coverage potentially bringing chances to any part of the forecast area. They will likely remain dry in nature so gusty winds and lightning will be the greatest risk with them but some of these could potentially linger into the overnight hours of early Thu AM. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Behind the shortwave, temperatures will cool 5-10 degrees for daytime highs on Thursday and Friday with temps returning to the low to mid 80s across the area. Winds will remain breezy on Thursday, 15- 25 mph, but the cooler temps and higher RHs should reduce the risk of any Red Flag conditions being reached. Winds will back off as we get into Friday as ridging once again builds over the area later in the day and continuing into the weekend. As this occurs, temperatures will begin to climb once again over the weekend into the 90s across the lower elevations where they look to stay into at least the first part of next week. Precip chances look bleak Thursday into next week keeping the things very summer-like across eastern Idaho. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1102 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 A FEW-SCT altocumulus will start to move into southern Idaho early this evening, but still not expecting any CIG even at those altitudes. These mid-level clouds are in very unstable air and there could be some isold TS with no precip in the mountains, but right now it appears to stay well north of KSUN and KDIJ. VSBY will continue unlimited. Wind is continuing light and slope- valley effect mainly until approximately 09/15Z, when an approaching cold front from the west will generate some southerly breezy wind with even stronger wind by mid-afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 PM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 The expected upper level trough and dry cold front is still on track to create some Red Flag conditions from mid-afternoon into the evening. Hot afternoon temperatures will still drive humidity into the single digits and low teens. The strong heating has also been increasing the instability this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon, which has helped mix down stronger wind from higher up in the atmosphere, with mixing heights peaking tomorrow above 20000ft MSL, which is high even for this time of year. Have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning. This dry cold front, with the continued high instability, will trigger dry thunderstorms, mostly from early evening (1800 MDT) and into the late night hours, rather than the afternoon. At this time, as it has for the last three days, guidance has been leaning towards probabilities below the 25 percent threshold, except in the northern end of the Salmon-Challis NF; but they do not have critical fuels there...yet. This cold front provides 8 to 12 deg F of cooling and a similar uptick in humidity percentages, both recovery and minimum. This will last for Thu and Fri, then the upper level ridge reasserts itself and afternoon highs soar back into the 90s and humidity dries out, though not quite to pre-front levels. Will have to monitor wind in the Snake River plain, as it will bring if not push weather conditions into the critical thresholds for wind and humidity. && .PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 3 PM to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for IDZ410- 413-425-427. && $$ SHORT TERM...McKaughan LONG TERM...McKaughan AVIATION...Messick FIRE WEATHER...Messick