940
FXUS65 KPIH 072003
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
203 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Frost and freeze warnings in effect Wednesday morning for the
  Arco/Mud Lake Desert and Snake River Plain with widespread
  below freezing temperatures during the early morning hours.

- Warming trend will continue throughout the week, with daytime
  temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal mid- to late week.

- Precipitation and colder temperatures return for the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 157 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Afternoon satellite imagery is all but void of any appreciable
clouds for hundreds of miles as our quiet weather continues.
Temperatures are beginning their upward trend however with some
lower 60s expected in the lower elevations before the day is done.
Cool overnight lows are expected once again tonight but not quite as
chilly as the two previous days. With the lack of a widespread hard
freeze the previous evening, another Freeze Warning is in place for
with northern tier of our agricultural zones with a Frost Advisory
in place for the two southern zones. For the Freeze Warnings, sub-
freezing temperatures should be limited to the more rural parts of
those zones. Not sure we`ll see temps in and around the interstate
corridor, including Pocatello and Idaho Falls, drop below the
freezing mark tonight although more rural locations will have a much
higher chance. Ample sunshine will remain in place tomorrow with
temperatures continuing to trend upward with upper 60s to lower 70s
expected across the lower elevations with continued dry conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

A PacNW upper low will gradually descend down the coast before
shifting inland during the weekend. National Blend daytime
temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees above normal on Thursday
and Friday before the trough moves overhead, with widespread 60s and
70s in the low to mid-elevations and 40s and 50s in the mountains.
Winds will be breezy each afternoon as the low approaches, with much
of the region seeing 20 to 30 mph gusts. 72-hour QPF forecast during
the weekend ranges 0.15" to 0.40" across the eastern Magic
Valley and Snake River Plain and roughly half an inch to one
inch in the mid to high elevations. Heading further into next
week, models have different takes on how the upper-level pattern
will unfold with most ensemble members showing the low
splitting, resulting in one low over ID/MT and the other along
the CA coast. One third or more of total ensemble members
suggest high pressure will control our weather pattern during
this period, while the majority of solutions maintains some
degree of low low pressure over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1135 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Clear skies and light winds remain in place across the region.
KSUN will see light, diurnal upvalley/downvalley winds. No wind
or precip concerns regionwide into the day Wednesday with only a
few high clouds possible, at best.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 AM MDT Tue Oct 7 2025

Main theme will be significant warming trend today through
Thursday with highs well above normal by Thursday. Light winds
expected today and Wednesday with winds by Thursday expected in
the 10 to 15 mph range. The chance for showers will return
Friday and continue into early next week with a significant
cool down and well below normal temperatures expected Saturday
through next Tuesday.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for IDZ051-055.
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM MDT Wednesday for IDZ052>054.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McKaughan
LONG TERM...Cropp
AVIATION...McKaughan
FIRE WEATHER...GK