536
FXUS65 KPIH 300655
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1255 AM MDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SHORT TERM...Today and Monday. We will be under the influence of
a slower moving low to start off July. In general, winds will be
on the increase outside of any thunderstorm development. We should
stay below any type of wind headline criteria...including LAKE
WIND thresholds for American Falls Reservoir today and tomorrow.
There is a 20-35% chance we could briefly hit WIND ADVISORY
criteria today around Mud Lake. We will see a gradual increase
today in shower and thunderstorm potential. The best chance
through this afternoon will be across the central mountains and
east along the Montana border toward Island Park. We will some
lighter rainfall with gusts over 35 mph, with again a 50+% chance
of those winds from around Lone Pine to Island Park. That area is
on the edge of a MARGINAL RISK of severe storms, which extends
more into Montana and Wyoming. We will see showers and storms
slowly shift east tonight, with the best chance again closer to
the Montana border. There is some expectation of a few overnight
storms, so don`t be shocked if you are woken up by some rumbles of
thunder.

For Monday, shower and thunderstorm coverage lingers across the
eastern and southeast highlands in the morning. By afternoon, with
the main low skirting by just to our north...coverage of showers
and storms picks up again generally north of a Hailey to Freedom,
WY line. More isolated storms are possible to the south of that
late in the afternoon and through sunset. There is a better
potential for measurable rainfall around Monida Pass and Island
Park tomorrow, along with a 30-50% chance of gusts over 35 mph.
Keyes

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday.

Extended looks mainly dry due to a ridge of high pressure across the
Pacific Northwest. Much of the week, we`ll be in northwest flow
which will keep our temperatures near or slightly below normal.
However, most model solutions (about 75%) bring the ridge overhead
late in the week and over the weekend. This will send our
temperatures above normal with 90s looking more likely for next
weekend into the following week.

13

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions likely today at all taf sites. Some
models are showing showers possible near KSUN this afternoon as a
weak boundary presses into the area. But will hold off on
mentioning SHRA at KSUN as chances look low (around 20%). There is
a better chance of SHRA at PIH, IDA and DIJ tonight (30 to 40%)
as the boundary moves east. However, expect conditions to remain
vfr through the night. Breezy conditions will develop today with
gusts of 25 to 30 kts likely at BYI, PIH and IDA this afternoon.
Expect SUN to turn initially upvalley for a few hours early this
afternoon, but then turn more southwesterly mid to late afternoon
with gusts to 20kts.

13


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A slow moving low will bring wind and the
potential for showers and thunderstorms across central and eastern
Idaho. Widespread gusts of 20-30 mph are expected, with some gusts
closer to 35 mph across the Arco Desert. Humidity will be
increasing, except across portions of Zone 413 where afternoon
humidity remains in the 10-20% range. Shower and thunderstorm
coverage will be greatest across the central mountains and across
Zone 411 along the Montana border. Wetting rain potential is low
through this evening, with a small area peaking around 30-50%
across Zones 475/476 and west of Monida Pass. Greater concern will
be outflow wind gusts over 35 mph especially along the Montana
border and northeast from there. With this storm, we are expecting
some overnight and morning thunderstorms across Zones 410, 411,
413 and 427. With the main push with this low arriving tomorrow,
we are looking at more rainfall...including a much higher chance
of wetting rains across 475/476 and 411. Some areas are looking at
a 50-80% chance of more than 0.10" of rainfall. Just like today,
the farther north you are...the higher potential for thunderstorms
and also wind gusts over 35 mph. We do dry out and slowly warm up
through the 4th of July...with only a few showers or storms
possible around Island Park according to the Blend of Models.
Wednesday looks like the day with the most wind...with widespread
gusts of 25-35 mph forecast with many areas sitting in the low to
mid teens for afternoon humidity.  Keyes

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$