650
FXUS65 KPIH 051948
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
148 PM MDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night.
Clear skies expected the remainder of the weekend with significant
warming on Sunday. Lows tonight will be in the 20s and 30s
mountains and 30s and 40s in the valleys. Some areas in the Arco
Desert will reach 34 degrees but not expecting widespread frost or
freeze to occur. Highs on Sunday will be in the 60s to lower 70s
mountains and 70s to lower 80s valleys. Lows Sunday night in the
30s mountains and upper 30s to mid 40s valleys. Winds will
continue to die down tonight and not expecting significant winds
on Sunday.
GK



.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday.
Monday will continue the dry and very mild conditions with highs
in the mountains well into the 60s and 70s with 70s and 80s
valleys once again. There is a very weak system Tuesday and model
blends have added a slight chance of showers in the southeast
corner of Idaho mainly the Bear Lake region and southeast
Highlands. Low confidence in rain actually falling. It will be dry
and warm Wednesday and Thursday with high temperatures remaining
10 to 15 degrees above normal with highs in the 70s and 80s for
the most part. The models indicate an upper level trof bringing at
least a slight chance for showers Friday and Saturday mainly in
the mountains but high uncertainty as GFS shows more precipitation
and a low closing off. Temperatures do cool off with highs 60s and
70s Friday and 50s and 60s Saturday with the trof expected to
produce some substantial cooling. Not expecting significant wind
impacts in the long term period.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions with clear skies through the
period as high pressure builds into the area. Winds will be elevated
early this afternoon before dropping off by late this afternoon into
early evening and remaining overall light through tomorrow.
Wyatt

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...High pressure is building in across the area today
behind an exiting cold front. Look for lingering 20 to 30 mph gusts
across the Snake plain and southward through mid afternoon. Then
winds drop off, especially by the evening. Today, expect a 10 to 15
degree F drop in daytime high temperatures from Friday`s record heat
(in Challis, Pocatello, Idaho Falls, and Rexburg), and expect an
overall rise in humidity staying above critical thresholds for most
areas. The one exception is lower elevations in the Central Idaho
mountains where critical relative humidity is expected this
afternoon. Temperatures will start warming again for Sunday and
Monday. Models are still showing a weak trough on Tuesday. With this
trough models are still showing a 20 to 30 percent chance of
precipiation over the Bear Lake area, zone 413. But for everyone
else, expect continued well above normal temperatures and solid
below normal precipitation for this next week. Models are still
trying to bring a weak system through the area next weekend. Though
any precipitation still looks to be very light next weekend.
However, temperatures for next weekend are forecast to drop down to
near normal to slightly below normal, and relative humidity for next
weekend looks to rise significantly as well.
Wyatt

&&

.AIR QUALITY...Air quality has dropped to moderate for a few
of our northern areas from smoke from fires across mainly our
northern areas and fires in western Idaho. THe HRRR smoke model
shows more smoke moving into our area late this afternoon through
the evening with fires in western Idaho becoming more active again.
Check airnow.gov for current air quality and air quality forecasts.
Wyatt

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$