430
FXUS65 KPIH 120833
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
233 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Flood Watch Through Monday Afternoon: A secondary surge of
  moisture is moving through the area today.

- Raw & Chilly Through Tuesday: A deep upper-level trough will
  keep dense cloud cover and unseasonably cool temperatures
  locked over eastern Idaho, with daytime highs limited to the
  40s and 50s.

- Late Week Ridge & Pleasant Next Weekend: High pressure ridging
  brings clearing skies and temperatures warming to seasonal
  norms by Thursday and Friday, setting up a much more pleasant
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

While the "main event" of our precipitation has wrapped up, the
second round of it is moving into the area early this morning as our
deep upper-level low dropping through eastern Oregon today continues
to bring up Pacific moisture from the remnants of Rachel. This low
is going to move south into Nevada and then east through Utah
through the first half of this week, keeping rain chances around not
only today, but also on Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain chances remain
widespread today, but the higher rainfall amounts are expected to be
concentrated in parts of the South Hills and Eastern Highlands and
will likely range from 0.20-0.40 inches of rainfall with some
locally higher amounts. That said, we are still expecting some
continued rainfall throughout the rest of our CWA, too, so the Flood
Watch will continue as expected. By this afternoon, shower coverage
is expected to break up a bit and become a bit more spotty. On the
topic of current alerts, a Frost Advisory and Freeze Warning
continue this morning as temperatures continue to drop into the 30s
in the eastern Magic Valley, Snake River Plain, and out across the
Arco Desert area. Expect a mix of freeze warnings and frost
advisories to continue for the next several mornings, especially
with Tuesday and Wednesday mornings looking even colder. Of course,
the cloud cover could keep temperatures from dropping quite as much
as we expect, but we will see where they end up this morning and go
from there. Of note, our Frost/Freeze products generally end on
October 15th.

Highs today will struggle to make it into the 50s for
most and even where it does, we`ll only reach the mid 50s. The
Central Mountains will slowly begin to warm up on Tuesday as
precipitation begins to move out wit highs reaching the 50s there
and upper 40s to low 50s everywhere else. In the second half of the
week, we see high pressure beginning to build back in over Idaho, so
look forward to a warming, drying trend. By Thursday afternoon, more
of us will return to the 60s. Given the current forecast, next
weekend looks like a beautiful fall weekend to get out and
enjoy.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1011 PM MDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Precipitation has dropped off with mostly VCSH for all sites
currently. There is enough moisture remaining combined with
much cooler temperatures that all sites are currently MVFR/IFR
except BYI. All TAF sites could rise slightly before the next
wave of moisture. However, models are not indicating a rise.
Models still show the next wave of moisture for all sites early
this morning and going to mid to late morning. Expect IFR/MVFR
conditions CIGS and VIS for all sites with additional moisture.
The HRRR model is now showing a break in moisture tomorrow
afternoon, which could bring sites up to VFR conditions.
However, their are still multiple models showing the potential
of moisture tomorrow afternoon, which would keep MVFR/IFR
conditions. The most likely window for VFR conditions is in the
early evening tomorrow when precipitation is most likely to
drop off.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 231 AM MDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Showers continue streaming northward from Nevada and Utah into Idaho
early this morning. This is the second round of moisture being
brought to our area from remnants of Rachel being lifted northward
thanks to another area of low pressure moving through eastern Oregon
early this week. This will continue to bring another 0.15 to 0.30
inches of rainfall to much of the area today with some locally
higher amounts in the Eastern Highlands. Precipitation will become a
bit more spotty in the afternoon and evening and then slowly shift
eastward on Tuesday and into Wednesday. With the cold temperatures,
look for some high elevation snow to continue, generally above 7500
feet. The Central Mountains are expected to dry out first over the
next 24-36 hours or so as isolated to scattered showers continue in
the east on and off on Tuesday and early Wednesday as our area of
low pressure moves south and east through Nevada and Utah on Tuesday
and Wednesday. In the second half of the week, look for drier and
warmer conditions to return as high pressure begins to build in over
the area.


&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this afternoon for IDZ051>067-073-075.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ051-052-055.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for IDZ053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMM
AVIATION...TW
FIRE WEATHER...AMM