121
FXUS65 KPIH 120957
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
357 AM MDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night.
Will have one more warm and mostly dry day today with
southwesterly flow aloft keeping the warm conditions going one
more day ahead of a strong Pacific storm system with a strong cold
front which will move through southeastern Idaho on Thursday.
Expect rain and snow to move into the central mountains very late
this afternoon and overnight and overspread the remainder of
southeast Idaho tonight and Thursday. A winter storm watch has
been issued for the Bear River Range Thursday morning until Friday
morning for heavy snow and strong winds with a winter weather
advisory in effect Thursday and Thursday night for the Centennial
Mountains. Snow levels will be near 7 thousand feet this afternoon
and early tonight then drop to near 6 thousand feet Thursday
morning then to valley floors Thursday evening. The heaviest snow
where over 6 inches will likely occur mainly above 7 thousand feet
with only around 1 to 3 inches expected tonight from Sun Valley
through Stanley but over 6 inches much more likely over Galena
Summit. Many locations could see over a foot in the Bear River
Range with 3 to 7 inches in the Island Park area. Lower elevations
in the Snake River Plain will likely see under an inch Thursday
and Thursday night with temperatures starting off so warm. Wind
gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range are likely Thursday so do expect
blowing snow in the mountains and travel will be affected
especially over passes tonight through Thursday night. Highs
mainly 40s mountains and 50s valleys today then dropping to 30s
mountains and 40s valleys on Thursday.
GK

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday. Less widespread precipitation
is expected on Friday, as storm #1 exits to our east. We will see a
slight uptick in precipitation Saturday. However, the next big surge
begins sometime Sunday and won`t clear all of eastern Idaho until
Tuesday. The Sunday portion of this event will see a decent jump in
snow levels and temperatures as a warm front lifts north across the
area, with the cold front slowly moving through Monday into Tuesday.
While we likely see these amounts change multiple times before the
weekend, current trends indicate there is a 25-35% chance of more
than 1" of moisture (rain or melted snow) for the Bear River Range,
and a 30-50% chance for Sawtell Peak, Big Holes and Tetons. there is
a 30-60% chance of more than 1" for the Sawtooths and surrounding
ranges. There is a 30-40% chance of exceeding 1.5" for the
Sawtooths. Each of these passing storms will create more wind, BUT
we may see widespread impacts from blowing/drifting mitigated since
warmer temperatures are expected. Keyes

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.AVIATION...12Z Wednesday through 18z Thursday. We should see VFR
conditions through the afternoon hours for all TAF sites. We will
see precipitation increasing starting this evening at SUN, then DIJ
before sunrise. We will likely start out with rain and then mixing
or changing to snow after midnight at both airports. We will likely
see ceilings lowering at BYI, PIH and IDA overnight, BUT southerly
winds should limit the onset of heavier precipitation. ALL TAF sites
will see rain/snow changing to snow as a cold front shifts across
the area Thursday morning. There is a low potential the cold front
is about 6 hours slower, but that would keep precipitation as mostly
rain or a mix for PIH, IDA and DIJ until afternoon. Except MVFR to
IFR conditions once precipitation moves into a particular airport.
Confidence is high that we will likely see a band of much heavier
precipitation along very low ceilings/visibility (LIFR/VLIFR) with
that cold front Thursday. Whether it is a classic snow squall event
or more along the lines of a strong thunderstorm squall line is TBD.
Keyes

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
night for IDZ060.

Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM MDT Friday
for IDZ066.

&&

$$