672
FXUS65 KPIH 060832
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
232 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Today will be the last day (for a while) for near normal
  temperatures with highs only in the 70s and 80s.

- A warming trend is expected with very hot temperatures this
  coming week. Temperatures will return to the mid 80s to mid
  to upper 90s and even approaching 100 for lower elevations by
  next Tuesday and Wednesday.

- A trough/weak upper level low moving through late Tuesday
  into Thursday will bring breezy conditions and afternoon,
  mostly mountain, dry isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Looking at water vapor imagery our area is under weak high
pressure in northwest flow aloft with an upper level low just
off the northern California coast. Expect dry conditions today
and Monday. Temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s across lower
elevations, close to normal. Monday temperatures increase and
will be in 80s and low 90s across lower elevations, 4 to 8
degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Expect very hot temperatures through the period, 6 to 12
degrees above normal. The upper level low currently off the
northern coast of California will slowly fill and move over our
area late Tuesday into Thursday. Expect mostly dry afternoon
isolated thunderstorms Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.
Temperatures will max out in the upper 80s to upper 90s by
Wednesday afternoon. The weak upper level low system will cool
temperatures slightly, 3 to 6 degrees, for Thursday and Friday.
However temperatures across lower elevations will still be in
the low 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025

There are FEW-SCT mid-level clouds or just under that altitude
for everywhere but KSUN, where it will be SKC through out. By
06/10Z all skies should be SKC. Wind will be less gusty Sun,
with KIDA and KBYI seeing variable wind until mid-afternoon on
Sun. No afternoon/evening TSRA expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 AM MDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Under the increasing influence of high pressure early this week,
conditions will remain hot and dry as temperatures see a warming
trend with lighter winds and mostly clear skies. The warmest
temperatures are expected Monday through Wednesday, with highs
reaching the upper 80s to upper 90s in the valleys. Given a very dry
airmass in place, afternoon humidities will drop to the teens/20s
each afternoon, dropping even further for Tuesday and Wednesday to
the single digits and teens. Increased fire weather concerns are
expected beginning Wednesday as higher confidence now supports a
Pacific trough passing to our N/NW late Tuesday into Wednesday and
Thursday, bringing the return of breezy winds and isolated wet and
dry showers and thunderstorms. Due to a combination of elevated
winds and low relative humidity, near critical to critical fire
weather conditions will be possible particularly on Wednesday. Wind
gusts look to peak around 25-40 mph both Wednesday and Thursday. As
that trough passes to our north on Thursday, that will help bring
down temperatures and support a slight increase in RHs, albeit still
supporting elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. With
that trough departing east on Friday, isolated showers and storms
will shift to being along the Wyoming border region, with hot and
dry conditions building back in for next weekend.
&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...Messick
FIRE WEATHER...MacKay