193
FXUS65 KPIH 062115
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
215 PM MST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Afternoon satellite imagery shows an area of low pressure
centered along the Nevada/Utah border with cyclonic flow sending
associated clouds and precipiation surging northward into our
region. The big weather question of the day was just how much
would we warm up which would impact precipitation type and
snowfall amounts. Well, the answer was basically not at all.
Surface observations throughout eastern Idaho are all STILL
reporting snow everywhere observing precip with surface temps
hovering within a few degrees above or below the freezing mark.
That being said, regional webcams and grip levels show mainly wet
pavement in areas below 6kft or so with snow accumulations limited
to elevated areas and grassy surfaces, so far. The biggest change
to the forecast is the lowering of temperatures to account for
current trends and an overall downward adjustment of snowfall
amounts in spots. The existing weather headlines were left as is.
As we progress into the mid/late evening hours, temperatures will
likely drop enough to allow snow to begin accumulating on area
roadways, including across the Snake Plain and Magic Valley. While
hi-res models still differ on amounts and placement of the
heaviest snow, it seems like the primary area of focus will be the
south and southeastern portions of the area, including areas
around Blackfoot and Pocatello and the higher terrain of the south
hills and southeastern highlands. Valley accumulations will
likely be around an inch, maybe two, with the highest totals
focused across the highest terrain of the areas under the Winter
Storm Warning.

Precipitation will begin to taper off during the early to late
morning and by lunchtime tomorrow, most of the area will be dry with
skies gradually clearing from north to south as the low moves away
and high pressure builds over the area. Temps will remain on the
cool side of normal tomorrow but will trend upward this weekend and
into early next week.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday
Upper ridge remains in place through Monday, with dry and warming
conditions across East Idaho. Next system still poised to move
onshore along the Pacific coast late Monday into Tuesday, but
we`re seeing some changes in recent runs. Latest GFS and ECMWF
support a closed low at the base of the trough pushing inland
across southern California, with a much flatter trough shifting
across the PacNW. The closed low opens fairly quickly on both
deterministic runs leading to split trough passage across Idaho on
Tuesday. Ensemble clusters have trended toward this scenario as
well, leading to a drier impact for Tuesday. Deeper trough arrives
Wednesday into Thursday, bringing deeper moisture into the region
along with breezier conditions. Temperatures should remain
slightly above normal until the deeper moisture arrives. DMH


&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions are just messy in general across East Idaho
today. Widespread IFR conditions exist with -SN and/or FG, generally
south of a line from KDIJ to KSUN. KSUN just out of the heaviest
precipitation, and generally dry/VFR. KDIJ on the edge with VFR -SN,
but expect some heavier snow fall to rotate back north and lower
conditions again. Elsewhere, expect periods of IFR or LIFR with
-SN continuing through the evening. Gusty winds on the back side of
the low are also expected to continue especially for KPIH and KIDA,
with gusts 25-30kts. -SN should taper for all sites after 06Z, but
any potential clearing behind this low will likely just support
stratus/fog development. So any potential improvement back up to
MVFR or VFR overnight is expected to be short-lived. DMH

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Friday for IDZ051>055-
061>065.

Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Friday for IDZ056>060.

Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday for IDZ066>069-
073>075.

&&

$$