315
FXUS65 KPIH 022332
AFDPIH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
532 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold conditions continue through Friday with convective snow
  showers mainly in the mountains with a slight chance of mixed
  rain and snow showers in the valleys.

- Dry weekend as temperatures warm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Satellite imagery shows broad upper low across Idaho/Utah today.
Wrap around moisture working around the northern portions of the
low in cold pool continuing to fire showers across East Idaho.
Temperatures should warm enough this afternoon to support mix of
rain/snow at lower elevations, otherwise expect primarily mix of
snow/graupel, with light 1-2" accumulations in heavier showers
at higher elevations, though a few ranges across the central
mountains show some accumulations could reach as high as 3-4" if
the showers keep redeveloping over the same areas. Showers
taper overnight, but return again on Thursday, albeit with
slightly less coverage and with slightly warmer temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Long wave trof pushes east of the area Friday afternoon with a cut
off low over the desert southwest moving out as well. This will open
the door to the west for an encroaching upper ridge of high
pressure. Considerable agreement across the guidance space including
the multiple suites of ensembles through at least Saturday. Guidance
agreement begins to devolve slightly heading into early next week as
a shortwave trough erodes the high amplified ridge axis overhead.
This shortwave will bring low precipitation chances back to the
area, if even briefly but precipitation amounts shouldn`t be
significant.

Temperatures that will be warming through the weekend, will plateau
just above normals Monday/Tuesday with the ridge breaking down
temporarily. After Tuesday, however temperatures are expected to
climb through the balance of the week. The upper-level ridge will re-
establish, building in from the south and amplifying our warming
potential. The warmest temperatures of next week look to be just
beyond the current long term period, where the NBM Records monitor
is showing some very early potential at challenging the daily high
record for Pocatello and perhaps a few record high min temperatures.
This will be something we`ll be monitoring going into next week,
especially with the amount of mid and high elevation snowpack still
to melt off this spring.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 527 PM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Showers are still expected to decrease strongly between 02/02Z
and 02/03Z. Wind should also decrease strongly at that time,
with some locations going light and variable tonight, a marked
difference from the past three days. Isolated to widely
scattered SHRA/SHSN should develop again in the mid-afternoon,
with KIDA and KDIJ the most likely targets. KPIH may be able to
get by with no concerns. KBYI had stratus issues this morning,
and it appears as though the same will happen in the eastern
Magic Valley again, with a solid risk of marginal VFR CIGs.

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DMH
LONG TERM...TAX
AVIATION...Messick